Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 290010
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
710 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017
for 00z aviation discussion.
Surface high is now well east of the area and southerly flow is
ongoing. By tomorrow, enough moisture will surge northward for
some scattered diurnal thunderstorms with the best chances south
and the plateau. Thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread
during the day on Friday and even more so Friday night into
Saturday as a surface boundary/ shortwave works toward the area.
Models have continued to move toward the drier side of things on
Sunday with scattered diurnal thunderstorms. A few strong storms
can't be ruled out over the next few days with some gusty winds.
The best chance of strong storms looks to be on Saturday when mid
level flow increases as the shortwave approaches giving storms a
little more shear to work with.
The unsettled pattern will continue into next week with 20-40
pops during the day. GFS and Euro show another shortwave that
will move through some time mid next week. Right now, the Euro is
about 24 hours faster than the GFS. Went ahead and started
increasing pops for Wednesday but this may need to be pushed back.
Temperatures will be around normal for the entire forecast. Highs
in the mid to upper 80s will be common with lows in the 60s to
low 70s through the weekend. By early next week, some locations
will likely start hitting 90.
00z taf discussion.
VFR/sky clear conditions thru 29/12z. With sfc ridging influences
shifting eastward and upper level ridging dynamics weakening also,
sct shwrs/tstms with bkn ceilings around 5kft in at least vcnty
of terminals by 29/12z. Shifting sfc ridging dynamics eastward and
developing frontal system across cntrl plains will result in
strengthening sfc pressure gradient across mid state with sly sfc
winds around 10kt and gusts to 20kts at times 29/15z-29/24z.