Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 280249
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
849 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
for evening discussion.
Quiet night so far across the mid state before the next shortwave
trough begins to impact the region. A few showers and
thunderstorms are popping up west of the MS river this evening
which is just ahead of the upper shortwave. That activity may
spread across western Tennessee and eventually bring showers and possibly
some thunderstorms before 12z west of I-65. Also, upped winds a
bit as surface pressure gradient looks to tighten up overnight and
even a bit more into the day Tuesday. Strong southerly winds
should keep warm air advection ramped up overnight as well. Other than that, just
made small changes to match current obs trends. Rest of the
forecast is on track.
00z taf discussion.
Mostly VFR conditions expected for the first part of this taf
cycle. The only exception is kcsv which is holding on to MVFR cigs
for the next couple of hours. However, everyone will begin to see
MVFR (and falling to ifr) condition Tuesday morning as another
wave of weather pushes into the mid-state. These showers/ts will
likely stick around through the morning and early afternoon hours
and while the rain will let up by mid-afternoon, the lower flight
categories probably won't.
Southerly winds will be a little lighter overnight, but should
begin gusting up to 20 kts by mid-morning Tuesday.