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000 
FXUS64 KOHX 160808
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
208 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge has shifted east of Middle Tennessee, with much
welcome return flow now establishing itself, although we'll have
to endure one more cold morning. The southerly flow will start to
bear fruit a few hours from now as temperatures warm into the 
50's most areas across the mid state. In spite of copious and 
well- deserved sunshine today, things will change quickly. A 
shortwave currently brewing over northern Mexico will gain steam 
over the next 24 hours and move rapidly toward the northeast and 
bring rain to the mid state on Sunday. A few echoes may slip 
across the Tennessee River prior to 12Z Sunday, but the primary 
focus appears to be 12-18Z Sunday. The deepest moisture will pull 
east of Middle Tennessee after 18Z, with lesser POP's lingering 
into the afternoon and evening. The forecast surface pattern 
really doesn't portend any sort of frontal passage until late 
Tuesday or Tuesday evening, so look for temperatures to continue 
escalating until the middle of next week, when we'll see a slight,
brief cooling trend. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to bring a 
much stronger cold front through Middle Tennessee on Friday. That 
they are in such good agreement this far out is unusual. 

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions with light southerly winds becoming more southwest
after daybreak and increasing to about 10kts as surface pressure
gradient tightens a bit. Mid to high cloud cover will move in 
late ahead of an approaching front, with light rain shower chances
just beyond the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  37  50  44  60 /   0  10  70  10  10 
Clarksville    54  36  48  42  59 /   0  20  80  10  10 
Crossville     49  32  48  42  58 /   0   0  60  20  10 
Columbia       53  35  50  43  60 /   0  10  80  10  10 
Lawrenceburg   53  35  49  43  60 /   0  10  80  20  10 
Waverly        53  38  50  44  59 /   0  20  80  10   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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