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fxus64 kohx 202319 
afdohx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
issued by National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Update...
for 00z aviation discussion.

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Discussion...

Tonight through Saturday...isolated convection has developed
across middle Tennessee on the western side of an upper level trough near
the Appalachians. This activity should dissipate with the loss of
surface heating this evening, with patchy fog expected again late
tonight. As the upper low tracks east and a ridge to the west
intensifies, a deep northerly flow will develop. There will be a
weak trough extending from the upper low across north al, which should
favor afternoon convection in that area tomorrow. The large ridge
from the Great Lakes to Texas will become dominant on Friday and
Saturday, which should keep any small potential for isolated
convection to the plateau and near the Alabama border, with above
normal temperatures continuing.

Saturday night through Wednesday...no significant changes were
made from the previous forecast. The ridge will shift toward the
Great Lakes and New England through the weekend and into early
next week. Isolated afternoon convection cannot be ruled out so
slight chance pops will be continued from the previous forecast,
but no organized precip is expected through Tuesday. Models point
toward a cold front approaching by midweek, although there are
timing differences that remain unresolved at this time. Will have
chance pops coming into western sections on Wednesday as shown by
the GFS, although the European model (ecmwf) indicates a Thursday arrival.

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Aviation...
00z taf discussion.
Kbna and kmqy: generally VFR conditions expected over the next 24
hours with some patchy fog possible (mvfr visibilities) between
09z-13z.

Kcsv and kckv: VFR conditions can be expected through 07z-09z
before significant fog with IFR/LIFR visibilities and possible
ceilings develop and continue through 13z or 14z. VFR again once
fog dissipates.

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Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

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