Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 250121
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
821 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Lots of high clouds were sweeping across the mid-state this
evening, as temperatures fell slowly through the 60s. Winds were
generally out of the south at 5 to 10 kts, and will likely remain
around those speeds for the rest of the night. These winds should
keep the boundary layer well mixed, and lows are only expected to
fall into the middle to upper 60s along the Cumberland Plateau,
and lower 60s elsewhere.
Have made minor tweaks to overnight temperature, dew point,
relative humidity and apparent temperature grids overnight, to
bring them more in line with latest trends. Otherwise, no change
to previous forecast.
Still looks like the band of showers and thunderstorms, now over
western Arkansas will make it into our neck of the Woods by
tomorrow afternoon and evening, and a few of those thunderstorms
could become strong to severe. Spc's day 2 outlook still has
western middle Tennessee in a slight risk for severe storms, with
a marginal risk for much of the remainder of the mid-state.
00z taf discussion.
Bna/ckv/csv...surface map this evening shows the pressure gradient
really tightening up ahead of a strong cold front that is
currently situated over the Southern Plains. Winds will remain
gusty overnight with VFR ceilings the next several hours. Look for
convection to develop across the mid state after 12z while
propagating from west to east, possibly not reaching csv until
after 00z. Tomorrow's convection will form well ahead of the
surface front, so we won't be expecting an actual fropa until
several hours after the main line of convection.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 63 74 57 74 57 / 10 70 80 30 20
Clarksville 61 71 55 72 55 / 10 80 80 20 10
Crossville 55 69 52 68 55 / 0 30 80 60 20
Columbia 62 72 57 74 57 / 10 80 80 20 20
Lawrenceburg 62 73 57 74 58 / 0 80 80 30 20
Waverly 63 72 56 73 57 / 20 80 70 20 10