Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 101037
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
437 am CST Sat Dec 10 2016
for 12z aviation discussion.
1036 mbar high pressure center over Tennessee this morning will
move along the eastern Seaboard by this time Sunday morning as
surface low develops in Panhandle of Texas. Low will move
eastward during the day on Sunday with rain moving into western
areas of the mid state during the afternoon and overspreading
middle Tennessee Sunday night with front moving along the plateau
by 12z Monday. Surface wave develops on front Monday night with
rain chance across the south and a slight chance of light snow in
the north. Surface wave moves east rather quickly on Tuesday. A
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday night bringing
a chance for flurries after midnight and sprinkles during the day
Wednesday. Flurries after midnight Wednesday night then dry
Thursday and Thursday night and colder as 1034 mbar high settles
down across the area. By 12z Friday Euro has developing surface
low Oklahoma Panhandle with retreating surface high centered over
Pennsylvania. 00z Euro brings surface low into northwest Arkansas
by 12z Saturday then opens it up as an elongated inverted trough
with Tennessee in strong warm advection pattern and rising
thicknesses along with very tight surface pressure gradient. This
is a week away so plenty of time to get a better handle on this
feature. As for temps, get ready for a roller coaster ride, so
buckle up and keep a coat handy.
12z taf discussion.
Surface high pressure will move across the mid-south today...
keeping the storm track well away from the area. Expect VFR
conditions to continue through the taf cycle...with winds aob