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National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Regional obs this morning showing no lack of llvl moisture with sfc
dew points in the low/mid 70s spread across the CWA just ahead of
the leading edge of a cold front currently extending from about swrn
MN to wrn KS. This bndry is progged to continue pushing swd this
morning as associated vort max treks ewd along the U.S./Can border.
The bndry this then progged to stall out along the NE/KS border then
later today and remain in the vicinity of the srn CWA well into
tonight. Expect TSRA development late this aftn/early evening along
and south of I-80 where hefty moisture//PWS 2"//phases well with max
omega and MUCAPE 2000J/KG. By Monday then...sfc high pressure
building in from the north will shove the bndry farther to the
south. 

Low level moisture return begins in earnest Monday night advecting up
along the high plains with TSRA development mainly over the wrn SD
within waa regime with upper level support implied via Qvect convg.
Models are in general agreement brunt of TSRA activity will remain
just north of the CWA on Tuesday where low level theta-e advection
will be most prevalent thru the day. However...mid lyr QG forcing in
combination with passing upper shortwave will help induce TSRA
Tuesday night. And with a moisture rich environment in place...the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase...particularly
over the nrn CWA. Overnight svr threat cannot be totally discounted
either as it appears that adequate effective shear will be place as
well. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Both the ECM and GFS indicate the large scale flow transitioning
from near-zonal to a low amplitude upper ridge becoming situated
over the wrn conus with a downstream trof east. Several minor
impulses are progged to ridge down the front end of the upper ridge
and cross thru the region which could aid in initiating TSRA within
the extended pds. Thus low end pops seem to be the best fit given
low confidence of timing/placement of activity. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Current water vapor imagery indicates a couple of mid-level
impulses which have contributed to increasing mid and high-level
cloudiness across the region today. One feature was tracking
east-northeast along the Nebraska-Kansas border southwest of KLNK,
and the other was lifting northeast through north-central Nebraska
and south-central South Dakota. Both disturbances are producing
showery precipitation, which will likely remain to the south of
KLNK and to the north of KOFK. Some FL070-080 ceilings have been
observed over south-central into southeast Nebraska, though
prevailing FL100-130 ceilings will be most probable at KLNK this
afternoon before clouds begin to diminish later this evening. At
KOMA and KOFK, brief periods of ceilings generally above FL140
will exist this afternoon.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead

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