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fxus63 koax 231121 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
521 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 344 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Water vapor imagery this morning showing system that
wreaked havoc over the region has finally pushed off to the east and
was approaching the srn Great Lakes. Meanwhile a stratus shield
wrapping around the exiting system was making its way southward
thru the ern Dakotas and into the County Warning Area.

Max temperatures the next several days appears to be the main issue
to contend with. Models are in agreement large scale flow will be
somewhat progressive the next several days with increasing
heights/upper ridge building in from the west. However, to what
degree will snow cover inhibit the potential for warmer conditions.
Met MOS is clearly too warm with highs this afternoon. Mav MOS
though looks or realistic, but maybe just a bit on the warm side.
The ecm though is the only model advertising a distinct area of
lower temps in the nrn cwa, where storm total snow accumulations
peak. Will follow along and drop Max temps a bit north. For
Wednesday, except for the srn cwa, mid 40s/low 50s per the
met/mav are clearly too warm. And on Thursday, once again both
met/mav are too warm giving mid/upper 50s. Therefore significant
trimming is in order.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 344 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Dry forecast with relatively mild temps continues throughout the
extended periods. This, despite having a rather Stout shortwave
crossing the Central Plains Saturday night/Sunday. GFS/ecm/CMC all
prog surface high pressure over S-cntrl Canada stretching to the srn
plains will inhibit any chance of moisture return to fuel precip
development this weekend.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 508 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Regional obs showing batch of stratus extending from the ern
Dakotas into ern NE on back edge of slow exiting upper level
system. Latest models indicate the low cigs will pretty much hang
tight at all terminals through this aftn. Expect gradual clearing
then during the evening hours tonight.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...

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