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FXUS63 KOAX 181056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
556 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Continued dry and warm through Friday.

Weak west/northwest flow aloft will continue today as a weak 
upper level ridge slides east across the Southern Plains. A strong
shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces 
will allow a cold front to drop southeast and weaken as it moves 
across our area this afternoon bringing primarily a wind shift 
and perhaps some better mixing along the boundary during peak 
heating. Highs today should range from the mid to upper 70s. 

A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to build overhead 
tonight into early Thursday with return southerly flow increasing 
during the day Thursday.  By Thursday night, strong theta-e 
advection is expected ahead of an approaching shortwave trough over 
the southwestern US. This trough tends to weaken as it slides 
northeast into late Friday however a stronger trough will quickly 
move east out of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern High
Plains by early Saturday. At the surface, the associated frontal 
boundary will extend from the eastern Dakotas southwestward into 
low pressure over northern Kansas. A strengthening low-level jet 
overnight Friday into Saturday could aid in nocturnal 
thunderstorms over the area. Thunderstorms look to become more 
widespread through the day Saturday as the strong front dives 
southeast across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Precipitation should be quick to clear from west to east Saturday 
evening as the upper trough axis shifts east of the forecast area. 
Moderating temperatures are expected into next week as a 
deepening trough to our east keeps the colder temps across the
eastern third of the US.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A cold front analyzed from eastern ND to western SD as of 10z will
advance southeast through the forecast area today with surface
winds veering from south to north with the passage of the
boundary. Outside of increasing high-level cloudiness, expect 
prevailing VFR conditions through the forecast period.




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