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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1137 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Short term...(tonight through saturday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Deformation band of rain continues within a 150 mile wide corridor
that extends from northwestern Kansas through south central and
eastern NE into much of Iowa. A dry slot was beginning to move
into southeast NE and southwest IA, shutting off measurable rain
for the short term there, with thunderstorms now developing across
east central Kansas. These storms are moving north northeast, and may
still clip southeast NE or southwest Iowa late this afternoon
through early evening. At the same time, the deformation band
precip area may become less solid through the night, diminishing
to scattered showers through daybreak. The precip may even end as
a rain/snow mixture in northeast NE late tonight, but no
accumulation is expected there.

Lingering scattered showers can be expected Thursday as this
upper low continues to slowly pull away from the region. Precip
chances significantly decrease Thursday afternoon.

Dry Thursday night and Friday with high pressure across the area,
with shortwave ridging aloft, in advance of the next closed low
that eventually develops along the West Coast. This next system
begins to spread precip chance back into the forecast area
Saturday, although the onset timing is somewhat uncertain with the
ecwmf just a little faster than the GFS.

Long term...(saturday night through wednesday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Rain chances increase into the 50-80% range again by Saturday
afternoon/evening, continue Sunday night, then exit to the east by
Sunday afternoon. The best instability again looks to stay just
south of the forecast area across Kansas and MO. Dry Sunday afternoon
through Monday, but rain chances increase again into the 50-80%
range by Tuesday and Wednesday as another strong closed low moves
out of The Rockies.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Rain and IFR conditions will continue at all 3 taf sites through
the overnight hours. Rainfall should become less widespread after
sunrise with showers more likely into the afternoon. Did continue
vcsh mention in the tafs into Thursday afternoon. IFR conditions
will continue through the afternoon but could become MVFR by
Thursday evening.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...

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