Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 koax 221715 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1215 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 308 am CDT Mon may 22 2017

WV imagery this morning showing large upper level low pressure
currently centered in the vicinity of the western Great Lakes.
Imagery was also revealing very subtle impulses riding down the
backside of the system into the northern plains.

Height falls associated with large upper level low pressure will
spread across the northern/Central Plains today. Aforementioned
impulses will aid in inducing precip along a relatively weak cold
front making a southward dash through the Dakotas. Hrrr/rap13 are in
general agreement precip should be making its way into the northern
County Warning Area by early afternoon.

Meanwhile...a second area of convection is progged to expand along
an axis of increasing 300-305k isentropic upglide this morning along
the neb/Kansas border then into northern MO this afternoon. Given
overall environmental moisture...pws1.25"...will be more plentiful
over the southern County Warning Area through the day...highest amounts will be
found over the southern County Warning Area. Tonight...focus for mid layer
ageostrophic lift will be found south of the I-80
corridor...allowing for possible generous rainfall amounts overnight
before the cold front pushes south of the County Warning Area.

On Tuesday...upper low/vort Max digs down through the upper Midwest
into the mid MS valley region. Models are in rather good agreement
pockets of isentropic upglide may induce Post-frontal precip...more
or less isolated in nature...mainly during the afternoon hours.

Dry then Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 308 am CDT Mon may 22 2017

Precip chances in the extended periods come Thursday night/Friday
morning as well as the majority of next weekend...all in part to a
potent Pacific northwest wave moving into the Central Plains. Instability
parameters at this point look weak at best...thus reasonable to
assume severe storm potential will be minimal at best.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017

Cold front will be moving through the area this afternoon and
early evening. Thunderstorms could affect kofk 20-22z, and
klnk/koma 23-01z. Showers could be in the vicinity for a few
hours after the storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations