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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
310 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Short term...(tonight through monday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery early this afternoon indicated a
weak mid level disturbance moving through the region and another
upstream moving into western South Dakota. Our area remains in
northwest flow...with a ridge centered over The Four Corners
region. Best combination of moisture and lift stay farther to the
west in parts of central Nebraska...but will have some low pops in
for tonight across our western zones. These continue through
Saturday morning. We could see some fog later tonight across
southwest Iowa and parts of eastern Nebraska. Added patchy fog or
areas of fog into the forecast from late tonight into mid morning
Saturday. Otherwise...look for lows tonight mainly in the upper
50s and lower 60s and highs Saturday 80 to 85.

Although there is not good agreement...the GFS is much more
aggressive compared to the NAM in regards to quantitative precipitation forecast Saturday night.
Generally felt that the 12z European model (ecmwf) was a good compromise for late
Saturday night. Increased pop just a bit from previous forecast.
Pattern appears favorable for showers and thunderstorms to
continue into Sunday morning. Temperatures should be warmer for
Sunday afternoon (highs 85 to 90)...if precipitation and clouds
decrease after 18z as expected. Monday looks even warmer with
highs in the lower and mid 90s.

Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Large scale pattern will feature a ridge over much of the southern
United States at the start of this period. That ridge should
strengthen a bit through the mid part of next week from the
Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. Main shortwave energy will
continue to feed from the Pacific northwest into the northern
plains and southern Canada.

Kept the pattern on the hot side for Tuesday and Wednesday...with
highs mainly in the 90s. It appears that a front will sag down
from the north later in the week...with cooler temperatures and a
better chance of rain.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period
with scattered to broken mid clouds during the daylight hours.
Surface high pressure will build overhead tonight with guidance
bringing in some patchy fog so did add a tempo group to all sites
during the morning hours.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Miller
long term...Miller

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