Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 koax 180911 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
311 am CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 310 am CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Water vapor imagery this morning showing a low amplitude wave
extending from the western Great Lakes region to the Central High
plains with hefty moisture approaching from the Pacific northwest.
Meanwhile a cut off low was situated near the Arizona/Mexico border. At
the surface...a well defined baroclinic zone stretched from the
southern Great Lakes into eastern Kansas.

Rather pleasant conditions relative to this time of the year are on
tap the next several days as near zonal flow aloft precludes any
significant thermal advection intruding into the Central Plains.
Overall the met and mav seem to be in reasonable agreement
reflecting this showing highs generally in the upper 40s to low 50s
today through Wednesday.

However, a strong system approaching mid week will be the focus for
precip development over most of the region. On Tuesday...models show
impressive 500 mb hgt falls...15-20dam...expanding across the Pacific northwest
as a potent shortwave moves ashore. The system is progged to quickly
dig southeastward into the 4-corners region late Wednesday night
with the surface reflection kicking out of the Central High
plains into Kansas. NAM/GFS/ecm are in pretty good agreement focusing
precip activity Wednesday night north and northwest of the surface
low from the upper Midwest into the Dakotas then into Wyoming. Thus
will leave County Warning Area dry.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 310 am CST Mon Dec 18 2017

On Thursday...surface low migrates eastward across KS, attendant
cold front moves in from the north with precip expansing southward
during the morning hours into the County Warning Area. Precip type will likely be a
mix into the afternoon until cold air advection drives the column
below zero. At any rate, brunt of any snow accumulation will be
focused over the northern County Warning Area. Too early at this point to try and
pin down amounts by events Friday morning. Otherwise,
temperatures take a nose dive heading into next weekend as brunt
of cold air advection pushes in. Highs will likely struggle into
the low 20s next Sunday and Monday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1124 PM CST sun Dec 17 2017

Some MVFR visibilities possible with the patchy fog at koma and
klnk. Winds aloft should increase later tonight enough to limit
the fog. Nearly calm winds will become southwest and increase to
10 to 15kts by noon Monday.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations