Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
528 PM PDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Synopsis...very warm and dry conditions will persist inland
through Friday as high pressure remains aloft. Meanwhile, cooler
conditions will continue near the coast as a result of onshore
flow. A region- wide cooling trend is then forecast for the
upcoming weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the
Pacific northwest coast.

&&

Discussion...as of 01:46 PM PDT Thursday...very warm conditions
persist again this afternoon as a strong ridge of high pressure
remains over much of the southwestern portion of the country. In
addition, above the 1000 foot deep marine layer, very dry
conditions continue. While the marine layer has mixed out some
this afternoon, do expect low clouds to spread locally inland
again tonight and linger into early Friday morning. Afternoon
conditions on Friday will be similar to today as the ridge aloft
remains the dominate weather feature.

Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday as the ridge weakens and
onshore flow increases. Further cooling, especially inland, is
forecast for Sunday and into early next week as the ridge shifts
to the east ahead of a mid/upper level trough forecast to push
inland into the Pacific northwest. Overall, temperatures will fall
back to near seasonal averages from Sunday into early part of next
week. Warmest conditions will be inland while cooler temperatures
persist near the coast given a persistent onshore flow. Also,
expecting the marine layer to deepen slightly this weekend into
early next week with overnight and morning low clouds spreading
locally inland. Dry weather conditions are also forecast to
prevail through the forecast period.

&&

Aviation...as of 5:00 PM PDT Thursday...smoke from the soberanes
fire continues to impact the region this afternoon however it
appears that it is staying high enough that it is not currently
affecting the terminal vsbys. The marine layer remains compressed
and hence we will see cigs return late to select airports similar
to last night.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period over ksfo. On the other side of the Bay koak will see cigs
return early Friday morning around 11z.

Sfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.

Monterey Bay terminals...smoke from the soberanes fire will
continue to linger aloft over the Monterey Bay area tonight. LIFR
to vlifr cigs/vsbys anticipated to make an early return around 03z
this evening.

&&

Fire weather...as of 3:55 am PDT Thursday...smoke is still
lingering around the fire district today as transport winds remain
relatively light with varying directions through the vertical.
Tomorrow smoke transport winds in the Monterey area look to become
more from the south direction. This may bring more smoke to
Salinas and Monterey as well as into the Santa Clara Valley. The
marine layer mixed out a bit today but according to The Fort Ord
profiler it is holding steady at 800 to 1000 feet. Low clouds are
anticipated to return to Monterey Airport by around 0300z this
evening.

&&

Marine...as of 03:32 PM PDT Thursday...light to moderate north
winds will continue over the coastal waters today. Winds will be
strongest over the northern outer waters and north of the Bay
Bridge. A mixed swell will continue in the coastal waters. A longer
period southwest swell arrives later in the week as a tropical
storm weakens.

&&

Mtr watches/warnings/advisories...
... Bay until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 3 am

&&

$$

Public forecast: rgass
aviation: CW
marine: drp
fire weather: Sims



Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/sanfrancisco

Follow US on facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.Com/nwsbayarea
www.Twitter.Com/nwsbayarea

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations