Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
247 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Discussion...a moist southwesterly flow will continue to spread
mid to high level clouds north over the northern rockies. Some
embedded rain showers have been detected on radar over north-
central idaho; however, very little rain accumulation has been
reported. The best chances for precipitation will shift to
southwestern Montana this afternoon and evening.
A more organized and stronger shortwave trough, with an
associated cold front, will approach the region from the west
overnight tonight and swing trough the area during the day
tomorrow. Few impacts are expected with system, with only light
rain accumulations forecast. Also, snow levels are expected to
remain between 6500-7500 feet.
The wet and active Fall weather pattern will continue through
Friday morning, with 6-12 hour breaks between each disturbance.
Most precipitation with these storms will be during the afternoon
and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday's system will
be more focused over northwest Montana, as opposed to thursday's,
which will be more widespread. Only light rainfall amounts are
anticipated, and with snow levels forecast to be above mountain
passes, only those in the backcountry above 7500 feet will be
impacted with snow.
A short-lived ridge on Friday morning may promote enough clearing
for patchy fog in valleys. But overall, very little changes in the
overall pattern this weekend, where a couple more quick moving
systems bring more chances for rain. Friday night and Sunday night
currently look the wettest, with snow levels remaining above 7000
to 7500 feet during the strongest pushes of moisture.
Aviation...southwest flow will continue to stream mid to high
level clouds north over the region this afternoon and evening.
Some occasional low hanging clouds will develop over bodies of
water, that could drift over area terminals this afternoon and
evening. Some light showers will be possible for kbtm this evening
between 25/2300z and 26/0300z. Kmso, kgpi, and ksmn will see light
rain around sunrise tomorrow morning for a brief period of time.
Briefly reduced visibility and lowering ceilings will be the