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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
236 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Discussion...the complex weather scenario continues for today
through Thursday with southwesterly flow over the region. A
shortwave is going to pass through north central Idaho and western
Montana this afternoon and evening that will bring the threat for
showers and thunderstorms. The dry air in most places will again
lead to the potential for mostly dry thunderstorms, or showers
that produce little rain and gusty winds. There are indications
that storms may develop into a line and move from south to north,
which increases the threat for gusty winds with isolated wind
damage for 50+ mph wind gusts. Storms that develop will linger
through around 11pm in northwest Montana. The dry air, hot
temperatures, and threat for wind are also concerns for increased
fire danger.

High temperatures begin a cooling trend tomorrow while a trough
takes a stronger hold on the Pacific northwest. Storms will again
be possible on Wednesday with southwest Montana and locations
along The Divide to have highest chances. The cold front will
start to move in north central Idaho and western Montana on
Thursday so winds are likely to increase and high temperatures
will only be slightly above normal, but for now precipitation
looks to hold off.

Big changes to more Fall-like weather are ahead for the Labor Day
weekend! Forecast models are all showing a large scale pattern
change that supports significantly cooler weather with a good
chance for showery precipitation. The details are still under
evaluation, especially relating to the chance for showers, but
temperatures at least 30 degrees cooler than those experienced
today are currently forecast. An even colder weather system is
being portrayed by the models for early next week which may bring
the chance for some mountain snow into the picture for Labor Day!
So stay tuned as we seem to be jumping head first into fall
starting next week.


Aviation...a shortwave trough is approaching north central Idaho
and western Montana this afternoon and is supposed to reach the
region by this evening. There are indications that thunderstorms
will develop with this wave, that along with dry surface
conditions, could produce gusty winds. Most of the storm activity
will end by around 31/0600z. Wildfire smoke remains and could
cause reductions in visibility in valley locations again tonight
and Wednesday.


Mso watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning until midnight MDT tonight east Lolo...
Flathead/Glacier park...Kootenai...salish and Kootenai
reservation...west Lolo.

Red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot. flag warning until 8 PM PDT this evening Clearwater/Nez



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