Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kmso 200942
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
342 am MDT sun Aug 20 2017
Discussion...we continue to watch a weak disturbance moving south
out of British Columbia today, that will bring mostly clouds to
the region. Also, expect another breezy afternoon across the
northern rockies, with west-northwest winds gusting to 15-20 mph
at times. No precipitation is expected, though we will likely see
another day of below normal temperatures across the region (upper
70s to low 80s). The clouds associated with this disturbance
should move out of the region by Monday, allowing for good viewing
of the eclipse.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the northern
rockies Monday and linger over the area through Wednesday. This
will allow for temperatures to rebound back to normal values, if
not slightly above normal for this time of year.
Forecast models continue to agree on our next weather system
beginning to break down the ridge of high pressure late Wednesday
into Thursday. This will allow for the development of a
southwesterly flow, that will bring the chance for showers and
thunderstorms back to the northern rockies. We could see showers
and thunderstorms starting to develop overnight Wednesday and
lingering over the area through Thursday as the cold front pushes
through. Chances for soaking rains out of the expected convection
is low at this time. We could be looking at another day or so of
elevated, to critical fire weather between Wednesday and Friday,
due to the convection and gusty winds.
Another strong ridge of high pressure looks likely for next
weekend, with a return of above normal high temperatures for the
Aviation...breezy west-northwest winds will likely develop again
this afternoon as a weak shortwave of energy dives south out of
Canada today. Wind gusts will likely stay in the 15 to 20 kt range
for area terminals, with an increase of mid to high level clouds.
No precipitation is expected from this disturbance.