Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
348 am EDT Friday Jul 29 2016
Short term (today and tonight)...
rain soaked areas mainly north of I-40 are reporting patchy areas of
fog with visby as low as 2 miles. Expect this to dissipate rather
quickly after sunrise. Meanwhile, convection west of the area
continues to track east along the Tennessee-Kentucky border region. High
resolution models seem to have finally initialized with this
activity and slowly weaken/dissipate it this morning over our
For the remainder of today and tonight, broad upper level trough
and deep moist airmass will continue to produce afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms area wide. With marginal shear of
around 15 kt coupled with MLCAPE of 1500 j/kg there remains the
Prospect of an isolated marginally severe storm. Similarly, deep
moisture could produce some locally heavy downpours resulting in
some localized flash flooding. With much of the area not expected
to clear out until early afternoon, cloud cover may be an
inhibiting factor for any significant convection.
Long term (saturday through thursday)...
an unsettled weather pattern will continue through Monday, but
temperatures will be closer to normal for late July and early
August. A broad upper trough will remain overhead with several
short waves moving through, bringing a chance of thunderstorms each
day. An upper level ridge will build back into the central US next
week, bringing a return of the above normal temperatures. While
daily thunderstorm chances will be more tempered, a few weak
disturbances will crest the ridge and move through our area on the
eastern periphery. There will be enough instability and moisture
present to produce scattered thunderstorm chances as these
disturbances move through.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 88 73 90 73 / 50 40 50 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 87 72 88 71 / 50 30 40 30
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 87 72 89 70 / 50 30 50 30
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 84 68 85 67 / 50 40 40 40