Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
317 am EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Short term (today and tonight)...another short-wave trough will
move east from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee/Ohio valleys
late today and tonight. Jet dynamics places the Tennessee Valley
under good divergence aloft. A boundary layer jet is also induced
across the region with 850mb jet of 30-35kts. The low-level jet
and some mid-level dry air may produce localized damaging winds.
Hail convective available potential energy up to 300 j/kg will also support small hail, possibly
isolated quarter size with the stronger storms.
The plateau and central and southern Tennessee Valley have the
greatest chance of strong to marginal severe storms late this
afternoon and evening. Scattered/broken coverage of convection
will continue overnight tonight.
Besides the convection, another unseasonably mild day due to
breezy southwest winds ahead of approaching upper trough.
Long term (tuesday through sunday)...will begin the extended in an
active weather pattern. Monday's system will still over the region
Tuesday morning...slowly exiting the area throughout the day. Some
residual instability will be in place during the morning/early
afternoon for scattered showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. A few showers may linger into Tuesday night...but
overall will transition it a brief dry period for Wednesday with
weak ridging developing over the area. The next system moves in
Thursday into Friday. Models continue to show differences in
details of this system but in general agreement with timing and
bringing in a band of showers and thunderstorms across the area. A
few shower will remain over the area in Saturday with dry conditions
expected late Saturday in Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 76 59 77 55 / 50 60 50 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 75 57 74 53 / 30 60 50 10
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 75 58 74 53 / 40 70 50 10
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 75 53 72 51 / 40 60 70 20