Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmrx 250742 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
342 am EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Short term (today and tonight)...main system of interest is a
slow moving upper trough across the Southern Plains. This system
will move northeast into the Ohio Valley by Sunday. The trough
axis will move into the Tennessee Valley late today and tonight.
Associated upper jet will place the region under the favored right
entrance region of the jet with broad divergence. The upward
forcing will move into the southern plateau/southeast Tennessee
late this afternoon, then slowly move across the rest of the area
overnight. Enough instability to include thunderstorms for tys and
cha areas.

The upper jet forcing will also induce a low-level jet of
35-45kts. Later shifts may need to issue a Wind Advisory for the
far eastern Tennessee mountains tonight.

Followed model temperature guidance closely for today and tonight.

Long term (sunday through friday)...will stay in an active weather
pattern through the extended as a series of frontal boundaries and
short waves track through. We will begin the extended with a cold
front across the region. We will see decent moisture in place with
dew points increasing to the upper 50s and possible a few low
60s...strong daytime heating with highs climbing into the upper 60s
and 70s and a 40 to 50 kts 850 mb jet pushing through. This will
all combine to provide a marginally unstable air mass and allow for
a line of convection to develop and move in. A stray storm could
become strong or potentially severe. The cold front will exit
Sunday night but will be followed quickly with and other system
moving in. A warm front will lift though the area Monday with the
accompanying cold front tracking into the area on Tuesday for a
continue chance of convection through the first part of the work
week. A few showers may behind the system...but overall...the best
chance at a dry period will be around the Wednesday time frame with
weak ridging over the area. Model consistency lessens by the end of
the period but the trend is to bring in the next system around
Thursday or Friday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 74 57 73 57 / 40 100 70 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 73 56 70 56 / 10 90 80 40
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 74 55 71 56 / 10 90 80 40
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 74 52 68 53 / 10 40 80 40


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations