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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
1123 am EDT Wed may 24 2017

Discussion...
an active day across the region as a surface cold front tracks
toward the region from the west. Areas of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move across the region along and
ahead of this boundary. The first wave of energy will continue to
track across east Tennessee into southwest Virginia over the next
2-3 hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible with this
wave -- especially for areas along the NC/Georgia border where a
Tornado Watch is in effect and with some of the stronger line
segments.

The second wave will move across the region from midday
through the rush hour/late afternoon time period. Should we begin
to see some clearing/breaks develop back toward the west, another
round of strong, more organized storms are possible. This is due
to a strengthening 30-40 kt llj, which will create a more
favorable shear profile for organized line segments and perhaps a
few supercells. The big question as mentioned is instability and
how storms this morning will impact the environment late this
afternoon. Earlier runs of the NAM and hrrr supported some
stronger storms in the afternoon. Latest trends are weaker given
some lower progged instability values behind this initial wave.
However, as mentioned, the favorable shear profile will make it
necessary for watching everything closely as all three modes of
severe weather are possible: damaging winds, hail, and isolated
tornadoes. Main threat will last until 5 PM EDT until this
activity generally shifts east of the mountains as the front
sweeps in.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 72 55 75 56 / 90 50 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 73 54 70 54 / 90 40 50 10
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 72 54 71 55 / 90 40 40 10
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 73 53 64 52 / 90 60 70 30

&&

Mrx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Tennessee...none.
Virginia...none.

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