Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
301 PM EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Short term (tonight and friday)...upper level trough and very
humid air mass are expected to produce showers and thunderstorms
especially late this afternoon through just after midnight. The
main area of concern is the northern plateau and SW Virginia. Storm Prediction Center has
also covered the entire forecast area with a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms through 12z, with a slight risk over SW Virginia and
Tri-Cities area. One inhibiting factor is the cloud cover, but
enough dynamics are expected to ultimately overcome that

Long term (friday night through thursday)...the good news is the
heat will continue to be tempered back to around normal for late
July and early August with a little bit of an unsettled pattern. A
broad upper trough will remain over the eastern states Saturday
through about Monday with several ripples of short wave energy
riding through the base of the mean trough. There will be enough
instability and moisture present for medium to high chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms each day through this period. Much of the
remainder of the long term forecast will be a return to what has
been occurring for the past couple weeks across the southern
Appalachians...temperatures building back above normal with a more
limited chance for a cooling shower or thunderstorm.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 72 88 72 91 / 60 50 50 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 71 87 72 87 / 70 50 40 40
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 72 87 71 89 / 70 50 30 50
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 70 84 68 85 / 70 40 30 50


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories...
Tennessee...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Campbell-Claiborne-
Hancock-Morgan-Scott Tennessee.
Virginia...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott-




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations