Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
320 am EDT sun Jul 31 2016

Short term (today and tonight)...a weak wave will move across the
Ohio and northern Tennessee valleys today which will help pull a
boundary south through the region. Convergence along this boundary
is very weak with main forcing over the terrain features. Airmass
will once again be moist and unstable allowing for scattered
convection to develop. MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg...with limited
features for severe weather. Main concern will be locally heavy
rains. Best coverage will be across the north closer to the upper
wave and far eastern Tennessee mountains/plateau due to orographic
forcing.

For tonight...convection dissipates soon after sunset with mostly
clear/partly cloudy afterwards. May be some localize fog
development...especially areas that receive rainfall.

Long term (monday through sunday)...a frontal boundary will be
stretched just north of the area early Monday. It will slowly sink
south throughout the day, bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The front will move south of the County Warning Area on Tuesday,
bringing clearing skies. A ridge will build over the central US
midweek, putting the mrx forecast area on the eastern edge of the
high pressure. Several disturbances will ride along the eastern edge
of this ridge, resulting chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the second half of the workweek. High pressure
will slide east by Friday, and a cold front approaches from the Ohio
Valley for next weekend, bringing better chances for convection.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 92 73 92 72 / 30 30 40 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 91 72 89 70 / 20 20 40 30
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 91 71 91 69 / 30 20 30 30
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 88 66 88 66 / 30 30 30 20

&&

Mrx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Tennessee...none.
Virginia...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations