Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmrx 231914
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
314 PM EDT Tue may 23 2017
Short term (today through tomorrow)...
majority of the precipitation is continuing to exit northeast
through NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. A few very scattered showers
could move through this evening, so will maintain low end
precipitation chances through tonight. Mid to low level clouds
will stick around tonight which will help keep temperatures
similar to last night even though today's daytime highs are
several degrees colder. These mid and low level clouds should also
help keep dense fog away overnight. Although if clouds do clear
out a bit in a specific location visibilities could quickly drop,
but widespread dense fog is not expected at this time. The lull
in rainfall will only last till tomorrow morning before our next
system starts to bring increased rain chances to the area again.
Low pressure system will begin to move in and ahead of it a
frontal boundary push through our area. Surface low will begin to
increase in strength as it exits just to our north and this should
cause locations in NE Tennessee and SW Virginia to see the
highest precipitation chances and rainfall amounts in our forecast
Long term (wednesday night through tuesday)...
primary weather maker will be an 500 mb closed low digging southward
down the upper Mississippi Valley through Wednesday before
ejecting eastward across the Tennessee Valley through Thursday.
This will bring periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday night through Thursday evening, followed by a fair and
warmer day Friday. But the progressive weather pattern will
persist, with a new storm system moving through The Rockies into
the plains this weekend, tapping Gulf moisture and bringing into
east Tennessee and vicinity waves of scattered convection Saturday and
Sunday. A new deep upper low will move into the northern plains
and Great Lakes during the opening days of the new week, and the
associated westerly flow across our region should reduce our rain
chances next week while keeping temperatures close to normal.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 62 73 55 73 / 60 80 60 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 60 72 55 69 / 50 80 70 50
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 60 73 55 70 / 60 70 60 50
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 57 71 54 66 / 40 80 70 60