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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Marquette Michigan
131 am EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 300 PM EDT Friday Jun 22 2018

Hudson Bay high pressure combined with localized high pressure over
Eastern Lake Superior will keep conditions quiet through the short
term. Occasional high clouds will stream across the area today as
indicated by current satellite imagery. Temps this afternoon are
generally in the 70s to near 80 inland, however a moderate lake
breeze has cooled some locations near the shores of the Great
Lakes into the 60s.

Tonight, expecting similar conditions to last night with perhaps
slightly higher dew points keeping lows in the mid 40s central, and
upper 40s near the Great Lakes. Increased cloud cover over the east
as low pressure tracks across the lower peninsula will allow for
warmer lows there near 50.

High pressure continues to build from the north tomorrow leading to
mostly clear skies and with 850 temps progged to warm to 16-17 c for
the central (nam is a bit cooler) we could see some lower 80s during
the Day. Lake breezes will likely set up again as well, especially
over the north- and south- central. Slight chance for a shower over
the western portion of lsz 162, but most of that activity will
remain onshore over the Minnesota arrowhead.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 304 PM EDT Friday Jun 22 2018

At the start of the long-term period, Upper Michigan will be
wedged in between two mid-level lows. Low pressure off toward the
east Saturday night will weaken, having become an open wave by
Saturday night. Meanwhile, low pressure centered over the Dakotas
will remain stagnant through the weekend, until a push from a
Stout shortwave trough entering into Continental U.S. From the pacnw early
next week forces the low through the upper Great Lakes. Before
this shortwave makes its way through, ridging aloft will build in
on Monday. Toward the end of next week, general zonal flow aloft
looks to prevail with mid- to upper- level ridging in control over
the southeast Continental U.S..

Given this pattern, the best chances of precip during this
forecast period will be on Tuesday as the aforementioned low
traverses through. Although there are notable differences in the
models in the day 4 time frame, there is general model consensus
that there will be enough of a moisture source from the Gomex to
generate widespread measurable precip. There is still quite a bit
of uncertainty as to what locations will see the most rain on
Tuesday, but as of today, indications are that total rainfall
totals should remain below an inch. There is always the caveat
though that there are plenty of opportunities for the forecast to
change as this time period inches closer. As is typically the case
for this time of year, thunderstorms may be possible as well.

As for temperatures, they generally look to be near or slightly
above normal for this time of year, with the warmer days falling
on Monday (under the previously discussed ridging aloft taking a
brief hold of the region) and then in the latter half of next
week. Overnight temps will respond accordingly, with lows looking
to struggle to drop below the mid 50s by the middle of next week.

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 131 am EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

With a dry air mass over the area, VFR conditions will prevail at
kiwd/kcmx/ksaw through this forecast period with winds generally
below 10 knots. There may be some patchy, shallow fog at kiwd

Marine...(for the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
issued at 300 PM EDT Friday Jun 22 2018

Winds will remain at or below 20 knots through the forecast period.

MQT watches/warnings/advisories...
Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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