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fxus63 kmpx 180404 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1104 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018

Updated for 06z aviation discussion...
issued at 1102 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018


Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 424 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018

Subtle short wave has helped kick off storms from southwest Minnesota
into east central Minnesota and northwest WI. A cold front extended along
this area as well, and there is quite the temp and dew point
difference. Precipitable water values remain around two inches.
Winds aloft are not all that impressive, but the low level jet is
anticipated to strengthen by about 10-15 knots this evening per
several short term models. Front is projected to accrue more of an
ENE-WSW orientation, and with storms continuing to develop to the
southwest, the concern is for storms to move across the same area
tonight. Several other factors are present as well, and some areas
could pick up several inches of rain. Thus issued a Flash Flood
Watch in coordination with neighboring offices. Severe weather is
also a concern and while some storms have shown decent rotation
and updraft strength, there have not yet been any reports of
severe weather in our area.

Once the front moves through, abundant residual moisture and temps
dropping by 20-25 degrees should promote extensive cloud cover
later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 424 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018

With upper low over Hudson Bay and upper high centered over the
southeast, upper flow over Minnesota/WI will mostly be zonal later
tomorrow, and then our area is affected by southwest flow from
the next upper low moving into the western states. Thus have
precip chances over most of the area through Tuesday night, though
probabilities will be on the low side. Western upper low will
slowly move east, and flow will become favorable for general lift
with any short waves, none of which appear to be very strong. Thus
have low chances for precip later Wednesday through the rest of
the week. Temperatures look seasonable for the week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1102 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018

A cold front will slowly move through the region overnight with
northwest winds and MVFR, possibly IFR ceilings after is passes.
Expect some showers and thunderstorms to continue overnight, but
they should gradually shift southward. Ceilings should gradually
improve on Monday, with VFR conditions spreading from west to east
Monday afternoon.

winds should remain northerly, with a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms overnight. Should see MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions overnight as low clouds move in. Expect VFR conditions
to return Monday afternoon as winds become more northeasterly.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Tue...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind east-northeast 10g15 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind east-southeast 10 kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Monday for wiz023>028.

Minnesota...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Monday for mnz063-070-078.



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