Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kmpx 272348 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
648 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Surface high pressure from Hudson Bay southwestward into the Central
Plains will be the prevailing low level weather feature across the
area through the next 30 hours. Aloft, once a weak shortwave trough
swings through the Great Lakes late this afternoon, potentially
producing isolated showers in the WI portion of the weather forecast office mpx coverage
area, deep ridging aligned along the Lee side of The Rockies will
spread east tonight through tomorrow. The combination of ridging
aloft and surface high pressure will keep the area dry and mild. The
only cloud cover expected for the region is afternoon mid-level fair
weather cumulus clouds both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
Winds will also be on the weak side from the east, less than 10 mph,
and going light/variable overnight. Patchy to areas of fog are
likely to develop overnight once decoupling develops late this
evening, with the fog persisting through daybreak. The lack of
airmass change means nearly identical high temperatures for tomorrow
as what is experienced today, mainly in the lower 80s.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

An overall benign long term period is expected as high
pressure/ridging prevails. Near-normal temperatures will prevail,
along with dry weather for the most part.

Other than a small opportunity for precipitation on Saturday night
into Sunday as a shortwave tops the mid level ridge, the weekend
looks dry and mild. Any precipitation would most likely be light
and confined to west central Minnesota, given the surface ridge will be
in place from the Great Lakes into eastern Minnesota.

The other window for precipitation arrives Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a cold front trailing south from a shortwave trough
over northern Manitoba/Ontario moves across the area. With little
in the way of moisture to work with (given northerly low level
flow), any measurable precipitation would be minimal.

After that surface high pressure will build back in, with
continued dry weather expected through the work week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

No aviation concerns other than some early morning fog, possibly
lowering to IFR conditions temporarily, across west central
Wisconsin. Winds will be light from the northeast, to the
southeast.

Kmsp...

No additional aviation concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/

Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
Sun & Mon...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms and rain possible. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations