Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kmpx 220347 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1047 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Update...for 06z aviation discussion below

&&

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

As of this afternoon, wrap around showers were continuing to
diminish in coverage across far southern Minnesota as the occluded
low across Iowa finally is pushing away from the region, albeit
slowly. Still expecting scattered to isolated shower activity to
continue along the I-90 corridor into this evening, but otherwise a
very quiet evening across the forecast area north of there with
scattered clouds moving through and light northeast winds. A look
through the instability parameters at this point indicates the
airmass is stable north of the Iowa/Minnesota state line and will
remain that way. So, no thunder mentioned at all in southern Minnesota
this evening.

Tomorrow will be dry with decreasing clouds especially east. As the
slow moving decaying low pressure system continues eastward toward
Illinois/in light northeast flow will continue with generally winds around
5mph and no precipitation expected. For temperatures, a very normal
thermal profile for late June and highs right around 80 degrees with
dew points in the 50s thanks to the northeasterly flow should lead
to a very pleasant Friday across the area.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Overall, expecting rather benign conditions this weekend as
influence from any real surface features remains far from the
upper Midwest. Can't rule out some isolated thunderstorms Saturday
& Sunday as a few weak vorticity lobes pivot into the upper
Midwest, but coverage will be sparse & most areas are expected to
remain dry. Chances might be slightly better on Sunday afternoon
as a weak surface boundary dips south from Ontario & provided a
little more support for thunderstorm development.

Heading into Monday an upper level trough moves east off of the
northern rockies & will result in a more active weather pattern
next week. Still some timing differences in the arrival of the
trough but for now it looks like we'll see chances for
thunderstorms across the area Monday night into Wednesday. Cape
values look to be plenty sufficient for strong/severe storms & precipitable water
values of 1.5" or greater will carry a heavy rain & flooding
risk, but where the best environment sets up is still in question.
As the upper-level trough departs strong ridging sets up over the
Southern Plains with 500 mb heights around 595 dm by the end of
the week. We'll be situated at the northern periphery of this
ridge which is a favorable location for overnight convective
complexes, something to keep an eye on as we end the week.

Temperatures will remain seasonable into next week, with much
muggier weather developing into mid-week as dew points approach 70
degrees.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Mid-level clouds will continue to scatter out tonight, with
sct-bkn high clouds for Friday. Winds will be light and variable
into Friday morning, and then east/southeast at or below 6 knots on Friday
afternoon/eve.

Kmsp...no concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Sat...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Slgt chc -tsra. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind southeast 10g15 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations