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fxus63 kmpx 162039 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
239 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 215 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The short term concern remains temperature trend through

Finally worked lower clouds out of the cwa this afternoon. Water
vapor imagery shows flow dropping south/southwest across the
region in the wake of yesterdays upper trough. Some patchy
mid/high levels clouds will translate south overnight bringing
mainly clear to partly cloudy conditions. The surface ridge
remains over western Minnesota and will drop south overnight. Already
seeing some pressure falls over the west. This along with some
clouds overnight and a southerly wind developing should preclude
significant temperature drop over the northwest cwa. Still will
see at least some single digit below zero readings to the
southeast closer to the retreating high.

Some filtered sunshine from time to time Wednesday as most models
drive a short wave over the western Continental U.S. Ridge across North
Dakota Wednesday. This should increase the south/southwest winds
over the region through the day. It should also draw some modified
Pacific air eastward. We warmed temperatures and over the west,
especially to the Lee of the Buffalo Ridge into the lower 30s.
@0s should remain elsewhere.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 215 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The longer term concerns remain the short wave moving north of
the cwa Wednesday night into Thursday and if there is enough
moisture to mention a small pop over the northeast County Warning Area into
Thursday. The 12z GFS is strongest with the short wave and dives
it farther south over the western Great Lakes. If his would occur,
we may have to introduce a low end pop to the far northeast cwa
later Wednesday night into Thursday. At the moment it appears this
wave will weaken as it approaches the Great Lakes and moisture is
limited. We will keep the forecast dry for now.

Pacific air returns to the area for the remainder of the week
with temperatures warming through the 30s expected most areas. The
focus turns to the possible development of storm system over the
mid/upper Mississippi River valley later Sunday and Monday. The
deterministic runs have come into some agreement on the southern
stream trough moving across across the southwest into the plains
Sunday. 12z gefs probability plots continue to favor about the
southern third of Minnesota and into central WI during this period. A
shift in the development of the system has occurred on the 12z
European model (ecmwf) where it is a little more split in its overall trough
development at least initially. It closes off the upper low over
the central Continental U.S. And tracks the surface low farther south than
previous runs. The 12z GFS trended more toward previous European model (ecmwf)
runs and lifted the snow a bit farther south into the state. For
the moment with will hold onto some likely pops in the forecast
from Sunday afternoon and spread them east into Monday. Still
plenty of time for models to shift in overall storm track. 12z
gefs plumes are still showing a large spread in overall quantitative precipitation forecast and
possible snow amounts. Depending on overall trough and surface
development, we could see some decent blowing/drifting snow with
the system as well. Certainly something to continue to monitor.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1125 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Satellite trends indicate lower clouds/IFR/MVFR eroding around
east central Minnesota and dropping slowly south. Still have a Lake
Superior enhanced band trailing south toward krnh as well. This is
thinning but may linger a couple hours yet. VFR trend through late
afternoon for the rest of the period with some patchy mid and fair
amount high level clouds into the night. Northwest winds diminishing
becoming S-SW tonight and increasing into Wednesday late morning.

looking like VFR trend through the period.Some patchy stratus
remains east and west of the Airport but is eroding across the
interior city. Northwest-west winds into the afternoon becoming light SW-S
into tonight and increasing later Wednesday morning.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Wed night-Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.


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