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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
500 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Near term /now through Tuesday night/...a weak mid/upper level low
over the western Gulf of Mexico will remain nearly stationary and
weaken slightly through tonight. Meanwhile...a surface reflection of
this mid/upper level feature is noted on current surface map...with
observations indicating a weak area of surface low pressure centered
over southeast Louisiana near the mouth of the Mississippi River with
surface trough axis extending eastward over the northern Gulf. This
surface trough will lift northward into the Gulf coastal states today
and tonight and will be weakening (in conjunction with the weakening
upper feature). By early Wednesday morning...a surface high pressure
ridge will be rebuilding over the region from the east. With this...a
moderate southeast to south windflow is expected for most of the day
today...becoming more southwesterly tonight as the surface ridge
begins to develop. This slightly enhanced onshore flow will bring
increased low/mid level moisture into the region...with precipitable
water values climbing to between 2.0 to 2.4 inches across the region
today. A weak isentropic lift pattern will occur over the region
today...and combined with the very moist airmass and diurnal
heating...should see a fairly rapid development of showers and
thunderstorms across the region today... with likely rain chances or
better expected across most of the forecast area by afternoon.
Already have scattered activity over the Gulf this morning...lifting
north-northwest...and this pcpn should fill in through the course of
the day and spread further inland. Periods of heavy rainfall will be
likely, especially over southern portions of the forecast area. Rain
and cloud cover will keep the temps down a little today...with highs
near or just below normal...ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the
coast to the lower 90s inland. Lows tonight low to mid 70s across the
area...with the warmer temps at the coast. 12/ds

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...the area will be
between two upper ridges on Wednesday. A weak trof in between these
ridges will maintain above normal rain chances through Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area. The upper ridge over
the southeast expands westward on Thursday, pushing the higher precipitable water
airmass west of the area. This will result in rain chances returning
to more typical levels. Highs will also climb into the low to mid
90s. /13

Long term /Friday through Monday/...the upper ridge over the area
weakens and shifts east as the upper trof over the lower MS valley
moves eastward. The upper trof will linger over the southeast states
through the weekend into early next week. This will increase rain
chances back above typical Summer levels over the weekend as the
upper trof combined with precipitable water values over 2 inches produce scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. /13


Marine...a weak area of low pressure near the mouth of the
Mississippi River this morning...with associated trough extending
east across the northern Gulf will result in moderate to ocnly
strong onshore wind flow and increased seas through Wednesday. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish by Wednesday night into the later
part of the week as surface high pressure rebuilds over the northern
Gulf from the east. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous at
times today and tonight...slightly more scattered on Wednesday.Winds
and seas will be locally higher near the showers and storms.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 87 75 88 75 / 70 50 50 20
Pensacola 87 78 90 78 / 80 40 50 20
Destin 87 81 89 79 / 80 40 50 20
Evergreen 90 74 91 73 / 60 20 50 20
Waynesboro 90 74 89 73 / 70 40 50 20
Camden 92 74 91 74 / 50 20 50 20
Crestview 89 74 92 73 / 80 30 50 20


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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