Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmob 212157 
afdmob

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
357 PM CST sun Jan 21 2018

Near term /now through Monday/...an upper level low pressure
area deepening over northern Kansas will lift slowly northeast
over southern Iowa through the near term. Meanwhile, a surface
high pressure ridge across the southeast states and northeast Gulf
of Mexico will shift eastward and weaken in response to a surface
low pressure area forming across northern Oklahoma. This surface
low pressure area will also deepening as it lifts slowly
northeast, reaching eastern Iowa by late Monday afternoon. A light
southerly to southeasterly wind flow will persist across the
forecast area between these two features through Monday afternoon
as a cold front approaches from the west.

A strengthening upper level jet Max south of the upper low will
reach a maximum speed of 130 knots north of the forecast area by
late Monday afternoon. A strengthening low level jet is expected to
develop over the forecast area after midnight, ranging from 30 to 40
knots. Mixed layer cape values Monday afternoon ahead of the front
are forecast to range from 300 to 600 j/kg, with upper level lapse
rates reaching near 6.8 c/km. With a drier air mass remaining in the
mid levels along with the above mentioned parameters, still expect a
few strong thunderstorms during the day Monday after 9 am. Strong
thunderstorm wind gusts between 35 to 45 mph and small hail are
possible with the strongest storms mid afternoon.

Patchy fog will develop tonight into Monday morning across the
southern and western portions of the forecast area as low level
moisture moves in from the Gulf. Total rainfall amounts between two-
tenth to three-tenths of an inch is expected on Monday, with higher
amounts near one inch possible in areas affected by a strong
thunderstorm. /22



Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move east of the area Monday evening
as a cold front moves through the area. A cooler and drier airmass
moves into the area in the wake of the front through Wednesday.
However, no extreme cold is expected as the upper flow becomes
semi-zonal in the wake of this upper trough. Temps will actually
be very near seasonal norms. /13



Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...upper ridging will build
late in the work week in advance of the next developing trough
over the western states. This will allow temps to warm back above
normal levels. Conditions remain dry through early Friday before
chances for rain increase Friday afternoon as moisture levels
begin increasing ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest
rain chances are expected during the day on Saturday into Saturday
night as the front moves through. /13

&&

Marine...moderate southeast winds will become south to southwest on
Monday in response to the cold front approaching from the west.
Patchy fog will develop tonight into Monday morning across the bays,
sounds and near shore Gulf waters, followed by showers and a few
thunderstorms developing throughout the day Monday. The front is
expected to move east across the marine area Monday night, followed
by a moderate to strong offshore flow Tuesday through Thursday.
/22

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 55 73 44 62 37 58 35 61 / 10 70 10 0 10 0 0 10
Pensacola 57 71 49 62 40 58 38 60 / 0 70 30 0 10 0 0 0
Destin 57 69 51 62 42 58 40 60 / 0 60 50 0 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 50 73 45 62 35 58 32 63 / 0 70 30 0 10 0 10 0
Waynesboro 53 72 40 59 32 57 30 61 / 10 60 10 0 10 0 0 0
Camden 49 72 44 59 34 57 32 61 / 0 80 10 0 10 0 0 0
Crestview 48 73 47 63 36 59 34 62 / 0 70 40 0 10 0 0 0

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations