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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
648 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...predominate VFR conditions are expected through the
taf period. Isolated showers and storms near the coast this morning
will become more scattered by midday and afternoon as the seabreeze
moves inland. Not confident enough in thunder occurring at any of the
terminals to include more than a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention. Any storms should
quickly fade by early this evening. Winds become south less than 10
kt by late this morning. 34/jfb


Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Near term /now through Saturday night/...the upper level pattern
remains very similar today with the region still on the eastern side
of an expansive upper ridge centered over the southwest states into
the Southern Plains. Some slightly drier mid level air (700-500mb) is
advecting into the region this morning under the northeast flow
aloft. This results in the highest precip waters (over 2 inches)
shifting west of the local area today which suggests that overall
coverage of storms will be lower compared to the past couple of days.
However, deep layer moisture and instability remain sufficient for
isolated to scattered diurnal convection. While a few storms are
possible along the coast this morning, the best chance for convective
development will be midday into the afternoon with the inland moving
seabreeze. As typical for this time of year, gusty winds, torrential
downpours, and frequent lightning can be expected with the stronger
storms. Any lingering convection should quickly fade this evening.
Highs today will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices
generally in the 100-106 degree range. Lows tonight will be in the
low to mid 70s. 34/jfb

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...shortwave energy passes
west over the northern Gulf Coast on the south-side of an upper
ridge stretching east over the southeastern states. This passing
energy helps to disorganize a surface ridge stretching west over the
southeastern states, especially over and east of the fa, but leaves a
more organized southerly flow off the Gulf over the lower Mississippi
River valley. The result is very high precip h20 amounts over
western-most portions of the fa (2.2" +), tapering off as one moves
east over the fa, but still remaining high (1.8-1.9"). With the very
moist airmass over the fa, above seasonal chances of rain (especially
western portions of the fa), along with the attendant cloud debris
from the tsra will help to counter any subsidence from the upper
ridge and decrease the temp range into the coming week, with highs
over most of the fa decreasing from a bit above to a bit below
seasonal levels. The exception will be northeastern portions of the
fa seeing highs above seasonal, with this area seeing less
precip/cloud coverage than the rest of the fa.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...the eastern portion of the
upper ridge builds over NE Florida, shifting the surface ridge south
over the northern Gulf. With subsidence from the upper high becoming
dominant, temps rise through the week to a bit above seasonal levels,
with the chance of rain decreasing to a bit below. Am still expecting
the usual summertime precip pattern to return, with formation of
shra/tsra forming south of the coast towards sunrise, then moving
inland with the Gulf Breeze.


Marine...high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend into
the Gulf over the next several days maintaining a light onshore flow
with seas less than 2 feet. Winds slightly higher in bays/sounds
with the afternoon seabreeze. Isolated to scattered storms possible
each day, with slightly higher coverage possible Sunday
through Tuesday. 34/jfb


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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