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000 
FXUS64 KMOB 091055
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
455 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...Main upper low/trof over the
Canadian maritime and NE conus early today will continue to shift
east through tonight which will lead to a better zonal flow aloft
across much of the deep south and northern gulf states through
tonight. At the surface strong high pressure stretched from the
northern Canadian provinces to the central and lower plains
states...progged to build east and south across much of the eastern
conus and northern gulf states through tonight...resulting in the
coldest temps across the north central gulf coast region so far this
fall. Latest model soundings show surface temps lowering to the upper
20s to lower 30s for most inland areas generally north of the I-10
corridor early this morning...warming to the mid to upper 40s inland
and the lower 50s to the south stretching to the coast...then
bottoming out to the mid 20s for most inland areas generally along
and north of the I-10 corridor...and the upper 20s to lower 30s
further south to the immediate coast tonight and early sat morning.
With no record of freezing temps along the coast so far this fall
season will continue to keep a freeze warning for the immediate
coastal zones for late tonight and early sat morning. Highs sat will
rebound to the lower to middle 50s for most areas with mostly sunny
skies also expected. Another concern mainly for today will be breezy
northerly winds keeping wind chills in the lower to middle 20s inland
and the upper 20s to around 30 near the coast early
today...rebounding slowly to the lower to middle 40s inland the lower
50s near the immediate coast by mid afternoon. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...A dry zonal flow
pattern aloft will prevail across the Deep South Saturday, while
the strong surface ridge of high pressure meanwhile continues to
shift east from the Tennessee Valley to the East Coast. Cool and
sunny/dry conditions are expected to continue across our area
Saturday. Highs Saturday afternoon should modify only slightly into
the lower to mid 50s. High cloudiness may increase a bit Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, but dry weather otherwise continues.
Surface flow veers light northeasterly to easterly through Saturday
night, and expect lows Saturday night to range a little warmer, but
still chilly with readings around 30 to the mid 30s over interior
areas to the upper 30s to mid 40s heading south closer to the coast. 

Surface winds should gradually turn southeasterly during the day
Sunday, then light southerly by Sunday night as the surface ridge
continues to shift into the western Atlantic Ocean. The return flow
should allow for a gradual increase in low level moisture through
Sunday night, with surface dewpoints rising back into the 50s.
Moisture through the deep layers increases somewhat through late
Sunday with precipitable water values progged to range between 1.1
and 1.3 inches by late Sunday night. Weak isentropic ascent may
allow for the development of scattered light rain showers across the
forecast area Sunday night. We have generally kept the chance for
measurable rain around 30 percent, though that may be a bit
optimistic. Highs Sunday should moderate into the mid 60s over much
of the region. The return of low level moisture and cloud cover
should allow for much warmer temperatures on Sunday night, with lows
in the lower to mid 50s inland and in the upper 50s to lower 60s near
the coast. /21

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A surface cold front
will push across the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley region Monday
then settles from southern LA through southern AL/GA and becomes
stationary during the day Tuesday. A series of shortwave impulses
embedded within continued zonal flow aloft will traverse the region
Monday and Tuesday, and will aid in the development of scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the
boundary. We will maintain a chance of showers Monday and Tuesday,
while also mentioning a slight chance of thunder Monday and Monday
night given the indication of some weak instability over the area. A
stronger cold front should sweep from northwest to southeast over the
area sometime in the Wednesday or Wednesday night time frame. We will
maintain a lingering chance of rain Wednesday, before a much cooler
and drier airmass returns in the wake of the front Wednesday night
and Thursday. Highs Monday generally range around 70 to the mid 70s,
tapering to the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
should trend much cooler in the 50s to lower 60s by Thursday in the
wake of the frontal passage. Morning lows remain mild Tuesday and 
Wednesday mornings in the 50s and 60s, before trending back down in
the 40s by Thursday morning. /21

&&

.MARINE...A strong surface ridge of high pressure stretching from
the central Canadian provinces to the deep south and northern gulf
will lead to a strong northerly wind flow over the marine area early
this morning then a moderate to strong northerly wind flow this
afternoon and tonight. With the cold temps inland good drainage from
the north can be expected tonight and early sat morning. As a result
a small craft advisory will continue for the inland waters through
midday today and the open gulf waters out to 60 nm through 7am sat
morning. A moderate northeast to easterly flow sets up during the day
on sat shifting east to southeast sat night through sun followed by a
light southerly flow by early next week. Seas will build to 6 to 8
feet well offshore early today then gradually subside to around 5
feet by sunrise sat...then around 3 feet by early sun morning. 32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      48  28  54  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   52  32  55  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Destin      53  34  56  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   49  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  46  24  53  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden      47  25  52  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   52  23  55  32 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for 
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for 
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>635.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

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