Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS64 KMOB 221734 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1134 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...MVFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon 
hours, with bases around 3000 feet across the Mobile metro area 
with lower bases around 1100 feet across the Pensacola metro area 
closer to the center of low pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico. 
Ceilings will lower further through the evening hours into the IFR
range with bases around 700 feet, followed by areas of fog forming
tonight with visibilities dipping into the LIFR range (1/2SM to 
3/4SM) from about 23.09z to 23.16z. Light north winds overnight 
will turn to the east by late Thursday morning. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Florida Gulf 
Waters out 60 nm, and the Alabama Gulf Waters from 20 to 60 nm, 
due to strong northerly winds developing west a surface low over 
Apalachicola that is forecast to move southwest across the 
northeast Gulf of Mexico. Seas are expected to build to 4 to 6 
feet this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory will be in effect 
through 6 pm cst this evening. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

UPDATE...Dense fog continues to form over extreme western parts 
of sw AL and all inland areas of se MS. A dense fog advisory is 
now in effect for these locations through 9 am cst. 32/ee

MARINE...Northerly winds and seas will build to exercise caution
levels later today and tonight mostly over the open gulf waters 
of Al and NWFL...including inland bays and sounds generally east 
of the wake of a surface low that deepens off the 
northwest Florida coast. 32/ee

12Z issuance...IFR to MVFR cigs and visibilities through 22.15z 
followed by VFR conditions through about 23.03z then MVFR to IFR
through 23.12z. Winds will north at 3 to 5 knots early today 
becoming northeast increasing to 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts 
mostly to the east by late morning and afternoon diminishing to 3 
to 5 knots this evening and overnight. 32/ee 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...A broad upper low over 
lower MS this morning is progged to shift SE over the adjacent 
Gulf waters of MS/AL and NWFL by 12z this morning then further 
southeast to the west central FL coast by 00z Thu. At the sfc low
pressure continues to develop over the adjacent Gulf waters 
mostly south of the FL panhandle or generally ahead of the main 
upper system progged to meander and drift southward through 12z 
thu. With this pattern scattered rainshowers will linger over 
eastern sections of the forecast area early today then shift east 
this afternoon and tonight. Will continue to mention fog in the 
forecast for early today and again overnight and early wed 
morning. Skies will be mostly cloudy through this morning then 
begin to gradually clear from west to east by late afternoon and 
evening. High temps today will be a tad above seasonal norms 
ranging from the lower 70s for most inland areas and the upper 60s
to near 70 along the immediate coast. With clearing generally 
from west to east lows tonight will range from the lower to middle
50s to the west and the mid to upper 50s to the east. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Anomalous mid/upper
level low pressure area (and associated surface reflection) is
still expected to be situated over south Florida around 12Z 
Thursday. This low pressure area is expected to weaken and move
east into the northern Bahamas Thursday night and then on to the
northeast off into the Atlantic through Friday night. Deep layer
ridging will move east across the forecast area as the low moves
away Thursday through early Friday, maintaining a dry forecast. On
Friday, an upper trough developing over the northern plains states
and associated surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will send
a trailing cold front toward our forecast area from the west. This
front is expected to move south across our area Friday night,
bringing increased clouds and a slight chance for showers. High
temperatures both Thursday and Friday expected to be well above
normal, in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Low temperatures mainly in
the 50s, except for near 60 at the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Surface ridge drifts south
and east over the forecast area Saturday through early Monday,
with generally clear skies and no precipitation expected. Surface
winds initially northwesterly, but veering to east and eventually
south-southeast by Monday as the ridge axis shifts east. No
precipitation anticipated through long term period, except 
possibly at end of period on Tuesday as persistent onshore flow 
and increasing moisture produce enough instability for isolated 
showers. Cooler near normal temperatures at the beginning of the 
long term period in the wake of Friday nights frontal passage. 
Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s and in the low to mid 
60s on Sunday, then gradually warming into the mid/upper 70s once 
again Monday and especially Tuesday. Much colder Saturday night 
with lows ranging from mid 30s interior areas to the low/mid 40s 
coastal counties. Lows Sunday night moderate into the low 40s 
inland and low 50s at the coast, and to the mid 50s inland to 
lower 60s at the coast by Monday night. 12/DS

MARINE...A deep upper low pressure center will move southeast across 
the marine area today and tonight leading to a light to moderate 
offshore flow early today then builds later this afternoon and 
tonight in response to an associated surface low deepening over the 
adjacent Gulf waters of the central FL panhandle. As a result 
small craft will have to exercise caution tonight and Thu morning,
mostly offshore. A light southerly wind flow will develop late Thu
into Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across 
the marine area late Fri night into early Sat. A moderate to 
strong offshore flow will follow in the wake of the front Sat 
through early Sun. 32/EE


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ655-670-


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations