Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmob 262048 
afdmob

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
348 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Near term /now through Monday/...persistent light southerly flow
on the western periphery of a surface high positioned off the
mid- Atlantic coast maintains a fairly steady state surface
dewpoint profile in the lower to mid 60s overnight. Surface based
moisture and wind direction favors the development of late night
fog. This is supported by the latest rap/hrrr and short range
ensembles. Fog could become locally dense in spots. Overnight lows
mild, ranging in the lower to mid 60s.

Next upper level storm system, ejecting out of the plains states
across the lower MS River Valley Monday morning, makes steady
eastward progression across the Tennessee River valley thru the day. This
feature allows a frontal boundary to approach the mid-south by
Monday afternoon. East of the larger scale dynamics and surface
front, precipitable water values hold near an inch. Considering
passage of modest deep layer ascent and sufficient daily
instability, a return chance of showers and storms remains in the
forecast Monday. The Storm Prediction Center places a better
chance (slight risk of severe weather) to our north from the Tennessee
River valley, southward to northern MS/northern Alabama on Monday.
However, with amount of instability and wet-bulb zero heights down
to 8 to 9 kft, cannot rule out some strong to a few severe storms
containing marginally severe hail (quarter size or so) and
localized damaging wind gusts, mainly over the northwest half of
zones. It is these zones that are within a marginal risk of severe
weather that extends south of the slight risk area, with an area
defined along and west of a line from Thomasville Alabama to Richton
MS. Daytime highs Monday lower to mid 80s interior to mid to upper
70s beaches. /10

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...the upper
level trough over the southeast conus will shift eastward and
weaken before moving over the western Atlantic by late Tuesday
afternoon. Meanwhile an upper level ridge over the Southern
Plains will move east and build northward, with the central axis
moving over the region. This upper level ridge will extend from
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to south central Canada by Tuesday
evening and shift eastward through midweek, while a large upper
level trough exiting the Rocky Mountains moves over the Great
Plains. The surface high pressure ridge across the southeastern
states and eastern Gulf will remain largely intact as a surface
low across the Ohio River valley region moves east and weakens.
A weak cold front associated with the surface low will approach
the region from the northwest just reaching the northern portion
of the forecast area and stall. Other then a few isolated showers
across our far northern zones Monday night near the front and
isolated development on Tuesday north of I-10, it will be dry
through midweek.

Low temperatures each night will range from 58 to 62 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs ranging from 80
to 85 degrees inland areas, with mid to upper 70s along the
coastal sections. /22

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...the large upper level
trough over the Great Plains will shift eastward, with an
embedded upper low pressure area within the trough over the
eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma lifting northeast. The
southern extent of the upper trough will swing eastward across
the deep south. The surface high pressure ridge across the
southeastern states and eastern Gulf will move eastward as a
surface low forming across the Southern Plains lifts northeast to
the Great Lakes region. A weak cold front associated with the
surface low will approach the forecast area from the west Thursday
night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this next system on Thursday and Thursday night, with
the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. The precipitation
will then taper off from west to east on Friday in the wake of
the front followed by high pressure building in from the west.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the long term. /22

&&

Marine...high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday and
Tuesday sinks southward to the northern Bahamas on Wednesday. A
general light onshore flow persists for the next several days.
Onshore flow strengthens and seas build on Thursday in response
to a strong low pressure system lifting up across the mid MS River
Valley and associated frontal boundary approaching from the west.
Chances of storms increase Thursday and Thursday night, some of
which could become strong. /10

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 64 81 61 81 / 10 30 10 10
Pensacola 65 79 63 79 / 10 20 10 10
Destin 65 75 64 74 / 0 10 10 10
Evergreen 61 83 59 82 / 0 30 10 20
Waynesboro 61 83 61 82 / 10 40 10 20
Camden 61 82 61 81 / 0 30 20 20
Crestview 60 83 57 82 / 0 10 10 10

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for alz265-266.

Florida...high rip current risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for flz202-204-
206.

MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations