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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
250 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Near term /now through Wednesday/...a southwesterly flow at mid
levels persists over the forecast area as an upper trof advances
slowly across the central/northern plains. A cold front, associated
with a deep surface low well to the north, is expected to be located
just east of the area at the beginning of the period with cooler air
flowing into the region tonight. An expansive, but shallow, stratus
layer has been broken up by daytime heating roughly along and east of
I-65, but the stratus is expected to spread over this portion again
this evening. The stratus is expected to break up across the area
during the day on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s
inland to the upper 40s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be near
60 inland with lower 60s near the coast. /29

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...the upper trof
over the plains continues eastward across the eastern states through
Friday, then weakening while continuing into the western Atlantic
Friday night. A reinforcing cold front moves through the forecast
area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and Ushers what looks to
be the coldest air of the season into the area as a massive dome of
cold air over the plains builds into the region. Skies finally clear
over the forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening with very dry
deep layer air flowing into the area through Friday, with
precipitable water values dropping to 0.1-0.25 inches. Have gone with
a slight chance for rain over the western portion of the area late
Wednesday night, then for most of the area on Thursday with the
frontal passage and lingering rains in the wake of the front, but
otherwise dry conditions are expected. Lows Wednesday night will be
in the lower 40s well inland ranging to the mid/upper 40s closer to
the coast. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be much colder
and range from the mid/upper 20s over interior areas to the lower/mid
30s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 50s
inland to the upper 50s near the coast. Highs on Friday will be
colder, and range from the mid 40s inland to near 50 at the coast.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/ upper trof evolves through
Saturday night while advancing from the western states into the
plains. It is not clear whether much of the upper level energy
ejects off across the interior eastern states Sunday night or moves
as a more well defined feature across the eastern states Monday into
Monday night. This in turn affects the strength and timing of a
trailing cold front which moves through the forecast area Sunday
night or later during the Monday into Monday evening time period.
Considering the uncertainty, will continue with small pops for part
of the area on Sunday followed by chance pops for Sunday night
through Monday, with slight chance pops Monday night. Highs on
Saturday range from the lower 50s inland to the mid 50s near the
coast, then trend warmer to the lower/mid 60s for each remaining day.
Lows Saturday night range from the lower 30s inland to the mid 40s at
the coast, then trend to mainly the mid 40s inland ranging to mid 50s
near the coast. /29


Marine...moderate northwesterly winds decrease tonight in the
wake of a cold frontal passage. Will leave a Small Craft Advisory in
effect over the waters out 60 nm until 00z Wednesday to allow for
seas to subside below 7 feet. A strong cold front meanwhile
approaches from the plains and moves through the marine area on
Thursday...with a strong offshore flow following in the wake of the
front which persists until subsiding Friday night into Saturday.
Another Small Craft Advisory will likely be required beginning near
midday Thursday. /29


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 46 64 46 58 / 0 10 10 20
Pensacola 49 64 48 59 / 0 10 0 10
Destin 52 64 50 61 / 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 46 61 44 55 / 0 10 10 20
Waynesboro 46 62 47 52 / 10 10 20 20
Camden 45 60 43 54 / 10 10 10 20
Crestview 44 64 42 60 / 0 0 0 10


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...high rip current risk until 6 PM CST this evening for alz265-266.

Florida...high rip current risk until 6 PM CST this evening for flz202-204-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for gmz650-655-



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