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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Discussion...see updated information below.

&&

Update...kept slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for a couple more hours this evening as spotty convection
still developing due to the interaction of outflow boundaries and
residual instability. Expect convection to end within the next couple
of hours and redevelop along the coast tomorrow morning and move
inland during the afternoon. /08

&&

Aviation...
00z issuance...isolated convection should dissipate over the next
couple of hours with generally VFR prevailing overnight. The
exception will be once again the development of patchy fog
development overnight lowering visibility to MVFR. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again
during the morning hours along the coast and move inland during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 359 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Near term /now through Sunday/...an upper ridge extending
eastward from the Desert Southwest to the mid Atlantic states will
remain intact over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile a surface ridge will
remain fixed across the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico
keeping a light southerly wind flow and low level moisture in place
across the region.

The isolated to low-end scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms forming along the sea-breeze this afternoon will
continue to migrate northward, so by early evening expect most of
the convection to be northwest of a line from the Mobile Alabama Metro to
Andalusia Alabama. Kept previous forecast of isolated coverage in this
area for the first half the evening followed by dry conditions
through much of the night, with the exception of isolated coverage
impinging along the coast late tonight. Further development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms will again occur along the coast
near a developing seabreeze and expand northward throughout the day
Sunday.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 72 to 77 degrees. High
temperatures Sunday will range from 90 to 95 degrees inland areas
with upper 80s at the beaches. Heat indices Sunday will range from
100 to 105 degrees. /22

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...a weak upper trof/low
will transition westward across the Gulf Coast Sunday night through
Monday. This will enhance rain chances through the day on Monday with
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms. Severe
storms are not expected, however a few stronger storms could produce
gusty winds. Heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning will
remain the primary threats. While this feature will move west of the
area on Tuesday, scattered rain chances continue as we will be in the
favorable eastern side of the upper low. Temps will be moderated by
the additional clouds and rain with highs in the upper 80s and low
90s. /13

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...surface and upper level
ridging will rebuild over the area through the end of the week. This
will return the Gulf Coast to a more typical summertime pattern. As
rain coverage decreases, temps will increase back into the low to
mid 90s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon. /13

Marine...high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend into
the Gulf over the next several days maintaining a light onshore flow
with seas less than 2 feet. Winds slightly higher in bays/sounds
with the afternoon seabreeze. Isolated to scattered storms possible
each day. /22

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Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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