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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
626 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00z issuance...VFR conditions through 24.00z. Expect a light northerly
wind tonight...shifting east at 4 to 6 knots by mid Morning Sun then
southeast by mid to late afternoon. 32/ee


Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

Near term /now through Sunday/...upper level northwest flow will
continue through tonight before the upper flow becomes increasingly
zonal on Sunday. This will lead to building surface high pressure
from the lower Mississippi River valley into the southeast tonight.
This will maintain a dry weather weather pattern with cooler temps
tonight as the high settles over the area. Lows tonight will range
from the upper 30s and low 40s inland to upper 40s to near 50 near
the coast. There may be some patchy across far northern zones, but
not enough to mention. As the upper flow flattens on Sunday, surface
high pressure will slide east and allow temps to start to moderate.
Sunday will again be dry and clear with highs climbing into the upper
70s to near 80 with mid and upper 70s along the coast. 13/jc

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...high pressure
ridge, surface and aloft, persists across the forecast area through
the period, but weakening slight Tuesday and Tuesday night as a storm
system begins to develop over the plains states. The high pressure
will keep things "high and dry" through the period, with no precipitation
expected. The low level flow will gradually become more east to
southeast as the surface ridge drifts slowly east, with relative
humidity gradually increasing along with moderating temperatures. Low
temps on Sunday night in the mid 40s inland to mid 50s at the coast,
warming slight to mid 50s inland and mid 60s at the coast by Tuesday
night. Daytime highs mainly in the lower 80s on Monday and in the
middle 80s on Tuesday. 12/ds

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...Wednesday and Thursday a
sharpening shortwave trof will move toward and then across the
southeastern states. With continued slight moisture return in the
lower levels...this feature should be enough to produce a few
isolated showers across the region, primarily on Thursday. Associated
surface frontal boundary only makes it down into central Alabama
where it washes out. Surface high pressure begins to build/ridge back
into the region from the northeast Friday and Saturday ending the
brief window for isolated showers. High temperatures generally in the
lower 80s across the area each day through the long term
period...with overnight min temps ranging from the mid to upper 50s
inland to the low to mid 60s at the coast. 12/ds

Marine...northerly winds will continue to decrease and become more
northeasterly as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf through
tonight. A generally light and somewhat variable wind flow will
follow through Tuesday as high pressure moves east of the area.
Easterly winds will increase along with building seas late in the
week as high pressure builds east across the mid-Atlantic. 13/jc


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for flz201-203-205.



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