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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
518 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...
00z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Only
major change expected is a shift in wind direction fro a general
northwesterly at the beginning to a general southeast Sunday, as
surface high pressure passes over, then east of the forecast area.

/16

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Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

Near term /now through Sunday/...moderate northerly flow in the
wake of this morning's cold front will relax tonight as high
pressure builds over the area from the west. With clear skies and a
much drier airmass over the area, expecting overnight lows tonight
to dip below seasonal across the area, with low to mid 30's expected
inland and low to mid 40's along the coast. As the high pressure
continues to build east into the western Atlantic, surface winds
shift to easterly and then southeasterly over the local area Sunday.
As such, clear skies and seasonal highs will continue Sunday
afternoon, with temps in the mid to upper 60's expected areawide. /49

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...surface high
pressure shifts eastward out into the western Atlantic Sunday
night. As a result, an east to southeast surface flow becomes
established creating an uptick in humidity and keeping overnight
lows warmer. Minimum temperatures near the coast will only fall
into the 50s...while more interior locations will see temperatures
in 40s to low 50s. Daytime highs should climb 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than normal Monday as the onshore flow becomes firmly
established and warm frontal boundary pushes northward over our
northern MS and Alabama counties. The probability of rainfall increases
during the day as precipitable water (pwat) climbs to almost 1.5
inches and shortwave troughs propagating along the southwesterly
flow aloft will ocnly tap into the underlying instability and
moisture. The warm and moist weather pattern remains anchored
over the region through Tuesday night however the warm frontal
boundary shifts north Monday night and pwats trend lower. Although
a humid and warm weather pattern remains with US any shower
activity should remain spotty at best Tuesday through Tuesday
night.

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...deep layer southerly
flow over the area deepens in response to an approaching cold
front extending southwestward from Illinois through eastern Texas by around
noon Wednesday. European model (ecmwf) and GFS seem to be coming into better
agreement on the timing and strength of this system. Current model
trends push the cold front through Wednesday night. A few strong
storms will be possible along the squall and out ahead of it
timing looks to be early evening through overnight hours...also
cannot rule out the possibility of a severe storm or two but
current projections show the main dynamics and more favorable
shear will remain north of our area. Would like to see another
model run or two to see if consistency is retained and to better
assess the potential evolution of this low pressure system.

A cooler and drier airmass then settles over the area in the wake
of the cold front Wednesday night and lasts through Saturday.
High temperatures should generally climb into the 60s each
afternoon. With low temperatures bottoming out Thursday night,
dropping into the mid to upper 30s inland and 40s near the coast.
Friday night lows will be a bit warmer near 40 to mid 40s inland
and mid 40s to near 50 along the coast. /08

Marine...moderate offshore flow continues through tonight before
shifting to more easterly and then southeasterly Sunday as high
pressure builds east over the area. Moderate onshore flow then
persists into the middle part of next week, potentially reaching
exercise caution levels at times, before another cold front passes
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase Monday morning and persist
until the aforementioned cold front passes through, with moderate
to strong offshore flow then expected in its wake on Thursday. /49

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Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
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