Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
344 PM CDT sun Oct 23 2016

Near term /now through Monday/...surface high pressure and dry
conditions persist through the near term period, with a high
pressure ridge also building in from the west aloft. Diurnally-
forced flow will set up beneath this high pressure, with onshore
daytime flow and offshore nighttime flow expected. However, daytime
onshore flow will be too weak for much moisture return, which should
limit any effect on temperatures. With continued dry conditions and
mostly clear skies, plentiful radiational cooling overnight tonight
will once again result in low temperatures dipping into the low 40s
inland to around 50 near the coast. High temperatures Monday afternoon
begin a slow warming trend, with highs in the low to mid 80s expected
across the area. /49

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...surface high
pressure and the dry conditions will persist across the region through
most of the short term period. Meanwhile, an upper level high pressure
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extending northwestward over the nation's
midsection will shift eastward over the eastern conus and gradually
weaken. Energy associated with an upper level shortwave moving east
out of the plains will approach the forecast area from the west
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This will mainly bring only
a slight increase in mid/upper level clouds through the short term
period as it approaches. Otherwise temperatures will continue slight
trend warmer through the period. Lows Monday night ranging from the
lower 50s to near 60 north-south across the region, moderating to
upper 50s and near 60 north to upper 60s south by Wednesday night.
Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday. 12/ds

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...the strongest dynamics
associated with aforementioned shortwave will move east across the
forecast area on Thursday, but with only continued slight low/mid
level moisture return this feature will struggle to create any
meaningful rainfall across the region. Pwat's do manage to increase
to 1.00-1.25 briefly on Thursday, so maintained an isolated to low
end chance for showers over southern half of forecast area on
Thursday. Airmass dries out again substantially Friday through
Sunday, with little to no chance for rain again in the forecast
toward periods end. Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s each day
through the long term period, overnight lows generally ranging from
the mid 50s far interior counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the
coast. 12/ds


Marine...surface high pressure over the southeastern U.S. Will
weaken some through the early part of this week, allowing for more
diurnal onshore/offshore flow to develop into Monday. High pressure
begins to build in once again from the central Continental U.S. Beginning
Tuesday, which should help to establish more organized offshore
flow. Winds then shift to more easterly through midweek as that high
pressure settles into the central Gulf states. /49


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 47 82 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 53 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 57 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 42 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 43 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 43 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 39 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none. flag warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for flz201-203-205-



This product is also available on the web at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations