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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18z and vsby OK with VFR conditions forecast next 24
hrs. Aviation hazards for approaches and departures will be gusty
northerly flow thru the remainder of the afternoon. Winds are
forecast to decrease this evening. /10


Previous discussion... /issued 954 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

Discussion...see updated information for land areas below.

Update...much more October like. Weather map analysis this morning
indicates that the strong cold front has made passage across the
entire area with the boundary continuing east and south, from the
southeast into the northern Gulf respectively. Latest Doppler radar
wind profiles show a deep layer of northerly winds of 30 to 40 knots
off the surface, which indicates that today will be well mixed and
breezy, especially close to the land/sea interface. This is
substantiated by latest observations and is advertised in current
forecast, so no changes made for wind.

For temperatures, strong cool air advective processes has kept late
am temperatures in the lower to mid 60s interior with mid 60s coast.
The strength of the cool advection may keep afternoon highs a
category or so lower which would require an update. However, with it
being early in the day, will maintain current forecast of highs 70 to
75 over the northwest zones and 75 to 78 elsewhere for now. /10

Previous discussion... /issued 609 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12z issuance...the last remaining band of low end MVFR cigs
stretching across the western Florida Panhandle will move offshore
this morning. VFR cigs expected area wide the rest of the forecast.


Previous discussion... /issued 401 am CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

Near term /now through Friday night/ a front continues to south
of the coast this morning, a more seasonal airmass will move over
the area. Am expecting any showers to be well south of the coast
this morning as significantly drier air (precip h20 values around
0.5" or less) moves over the area. Guidance is consistent in
advertising today's highs around to a bit above seasonal (mid to
upper 70s). With the pretty good consistency, have not deviated from

For tonight, temps generally well below seasonable expected, except
along the immediate coast, where better mixing from stronger winds
will keep temps closer to seasonal. Overnight lows ranging from the
low 40s north to mid 40s inland from the coast, around 50 close to
the coast. /16

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...the cooler northerly
wind flow will persist through the short term as a large broad upper
level trough over the eastern conus and western Atlantic moves east,
and surface high pressure continues to settle across the region. The
large scale subsidence associated with this pattern will result in a
dry period over the weekend. With low temperatures Saturday night
cooling into the mid 30s to lower 40s across our inland areas under
clear skies along with very light winds, areas of frost are likley
north of the I-10.

High temperatures will be just below normal on Saturday, ranging
form 72 to 76 degrees. Lows Saturday night will again be below
normal, ranging from 35 to 42 degrees inland areas, and from 42 to
58 degrees along the coastal sections. High temperatures Sunday will
be back above normal, ranging from 76 to 81 degrees. Lows Sunday
night will range from 46 to 51 degrees inland areas, and from 52 to
57 degrees along the coastal sections with upper 50s at the beaches.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...upper high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico with an upper ridge extending northwestward over the
nation's midsection early next week will weaken through mid week as
it moves slowly eastward and a series of shortwaves pass over the
upper Midwest and northeast conus. Surface high pressure across the
region will remain through midweek. This pattern will keep the large
scale subsidence and a continuation of the dry period to the region
throughout the long term.

High temperatures ranging from 78 to 83 degrees will occur Monday
through Thursday. Low temperatures Monday through Thursday will warm
slightly each night, climbing from the low to mid 50s inland areas
Monday night to the mid 50s to lower 60s inland areas Wednesday and
Thursday night, with mid 60s along the beaches. /22

Marine...strong offshore flow behind a cold front will last through
the day into Saturday. Some easing in the flow to scec levels over
Florida bays overnight tonight expected, with the offshore waters
and Mobile Bay settling Saturday morning as surface high pressure
works its way east over the lower Mississippi River valley. By
Sunday, the surface high settles over the southeast where it hangs
around until late Monday/Monday night when another front crosses the
area. This front is expected to be significantly weaker than
today's, bringing light to moderate offshore flow, which is expected
to last into mid week. /16


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT Saturday for gmz630>632-650-

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for gmz633>635.



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