Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1147 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
06z issuance...isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf and
along the coast will gradually increase in coverage overnight and
spread further inland during the morning and afternoon hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous at times Tuesday
especially near the coast. Flying weather is expected to deteriorate
to predominantly MVFR overnight. /08

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 707 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...
00z issuance...shower and thunderstorm activity expected to come to
an end in the next couple of hours inland from the coast but isolated
convection will continue over the Gulf and along the coast through
the night. Convection over the Gulf and coastal counties will
increase after midnight becoming numerous to widespread during the
morning hours...continuing through the afternoon. Flying conditions
will deteriorate to predominantly MVFR after midnight and persist
through Tuesday. /08

Previous discussion... /issued 428 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016/

Near term /now through Tuesday/....an interesting mid-Summer pattern
has been unfolding over the past 24 hours as a mid/upper level
eastern wave currently over the central Gulf of Mexico moves
westward over the western Gulf. Meanwhile a trough of low pressure
reflected in the low levels extends from southern Louisiana eastward
along the north central and northeast Gulf waters. This low level
trough will lift northward into the deep south tonight and Tuesday.
As a result, a moderate southeast wind flow has developed over the
region which will bring abundant low/mid level moisture into the
region from the Gulf, with precipitable water values climbing to
between 2.0 to 2.4 inches by late Tuesday afternoon.

Expect isolated convection across the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area through 10 PM followed by dry conditions through much
of the night. However across the southern one-third of the forecast
area, expect at least an isolated coverage through 10 PM followed by
isolated to scattered coverage after midnight with numerous showers
and storms impinging along the coast by late tonight. Rapid
development of showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday morning
across much of the area, especially across the southern two-thirds
of the forecast area where rain chances have been increased to
between 60 and 90 percent. Periods of heavy rainfall remain likely,
especially along the coastal sections.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 73 to 77 degrees inland
areas, and around 80 degrees along the coast. High temperatures
Tuesday will be cooler due to the persistent rains, ranging from 85
to 90 degrees with the exception of the lower 90s across the extreme
northern portion of the forecast area. /22

Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...by late Tue
afternoon upper trof axis over the central Gulf will begin to shift
west reaching the western Gulf and east TX and weaken by late Thu
night. To the east a deep upper ridge over the western Atlantic
continues to build west to the lower MS River Valley and north
central Gulf through early Thu. To the north a developing mid to
upper level short wave approaches from the west by late Wed into Thu
digging south over the lower MS River Valley late Thu into Fri. With
this pattern expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to continue over the forecast area through Wed afternoon tapering off
and shifting south and west late Wed into Thu as strong high pressure
builds in from the east. Precipitable waters continue to climb to 2.0 inches and
above through Wed afternoon then slowly decrease to less then 2.0
inches through Thu night. For Wed the best chance for measurable rain
will be generally along and west of the I-65 corridor stretching
south over the Gulf...shifting west and offshore late Wed night into
Thu. Expect more development on Thu with the best chance of rain
occurring along the immediate coast and offshore early Thu then
shifting inland mostly over inland areas of southwest al and inland
southeast MS by Thu afternoon. With marginal instability and forcing
the main concern through Thu afternoon will be periods of very heavy
rain with some localized flooding possible along with frequent
lightning and gusty winds possible up to 40 mph. With abundant clouds
and rain across the region through Thu daytime temps will be slightly
lower than earlier in the week climbing to the lower 90s inland and
the upper 80s near the coast. Nighttime lows will continue to range
from the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the
immediate coast.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...upper shortwave trof over the
mid to lower MS River Valley continues to dig as it moves east over
the north central Gulf states and se conus Fri into the weekend.
With this pattern expect better rain chances Fri into the weekend
with pwats climbing to the 1.8 to 2.0 inches through early next week.
For now will continue to mention high end scattered pops Fri through
early next week with better coverage locally over some areas to the
west and along the coast through the weekend. With slightly better
instability over the weekend and into early next week a few stronger
thunderstorms will also be possible each day occurring mostly during
the mid to late afternoon hours. As usual gusty straight line winds
possibly strong to marginally severe...frequent lightning and periods
of very heavy rain will be the main threats with the stronger
thunderstorms. Daytime temps will be a tad higher by the weekend
ranging from the lower to middle 90s inland and the upper 80s to
lower 90s along the immediate coast. Lows each night will continue
range from the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the
immediate coast. 32/ee

Marine...a surface trough extending from southern Louisiana
eastward along the north central and northeast Gulf waters will move
northward over the deep south through midweek. A moderate onshore
wind flow will persist into Wednesday along with building seas.
Winds and seas diminish Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds
back over the central and eastern Gulf. /22

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations