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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
550 am CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...widespread IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are in place
across the region this morning, and expect stratus to hold strong
through the morning hours, only improving to MVFR at best. Low clouds
may try to scatter a bit this afternoon near the coast, but are likely
to remain broken MVFR over much of the interior through the afternoon.
Light north/northwest winds are expected through the forecast period. /21


Previous discussion... /issued 432 am CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

Near term /now through Wednesday night/...early morning surface
analysis shows surface high pressure building from the Central
Plains to the Mississippi Valley region behind a cold front that
stretches from the far northwestern Gulf of Mexico through southeast
MS/central Alabama and into the Appalachian Mountains. A dry southwest
flow pattern aloft is prevalent across our forecast area early this
morning, but a low level moist layer remains intact around the
region. Satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show
a solid deck of low stratus extending across our region, keeping
early morning temperatures a little warmer than expected, with
readings in the lower to mid 50s as of 3 a.M. CST.

Surface high pressure will continue to build across the central Gulf
Coast region today and tonight behind the passing weak cold front,
keeping a northerly surface wind flow pattern in place over our
area. The low stratus deck is expected to hold strong this morning,
and may linger into the afternoon though there could be some breaks
of sun. High temperatures today should only reach the lower to mid
60s over most places, except in the upper 50s to around 60 across
locations generally north of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor. Lows
tonight remain cool, with readings in the lower to mid 40s over
interior areas and upper 40s to lower 50s closer to the coast and
beaches. Dry weather is expected to continue over most of the area
through the period, with the exception of a slight chance of light
rain over far western portions of the forecast area late tonight,
where a couple of guidance members are showing some light quantitative precipitation forecast
associated with weak lift underneath moistening west to southwest
flow aloft. /21

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/... an amplifies trough
moving from the plains to the East Coast by Friday will send the
first Arctic cold front of the season through the area Thursday
morning. Ahead of the front, a few light rain showers are possible.
However, rainfall amounts will be light. This front will bring the
coldest air of the season to the region with falling temps expected
Thursday afternoon along with gusty northwest winds. Friday and
Friday night will be the coldest of the period as Arctic high
pressure settles over the southeast. Highs on Friday will not get out
of the 40s across much of the area. Lows Friday night will fall into
the low to mid 20s inland to upper 20s and low 30s across southern
areas. /13

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...the high quickly shifts east
over the weekend, allowing a return flow to develop by late in the
weekend. This will result in temperatures quickly moderating back to
slightly above normal levels Sunday into Monday. With low level
flow/warm air advection increasing Sunday and Monday ahead of a fast
moving shortwave over the central conus, there will be the potential
for isolated to scattered showers across the area. The shortwave will
send another front through the area late Monday into Tuesday with a
chance of showers along the front. /13

Marine...a light to moderate northerly flow pattern will continue
today and tonight as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf. A
reinforcing cold front will move through the marine area Thursday,
with strong offshore flow and build seas expected Thursday into
early Friday. Small craft advisories will likely become necessary
for this time frame within the next 12-24 hours. High pressure will
shift toward the eastern states this weekend, with moderate easterly
flow Saturday gradually becoming southeast then south Sunday into
Sunday night. /21


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...


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