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fxus64 kmob 190545 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06z issuance...VFR conditions through 20.06z. Winds will be north
to northeast 5 knots or less through 19.15z becoming variable 5
knots or less through 20.00z then mostly southeast 5 knots or less
through 20.06z. 32/ee


Previous discussion... /issued 923 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

Discussion...see updated information for land areas below.

Update...clear skies and light winds are allowing for
temperatures to cool a bit more quickly than anticipated earlier.
Overnight lows over interior areas still look on track but have
lowered lows closer to the coast by a few degrees in some
locations. This has necessitated expanding the hard freeze warning
to include central Mobile and central Baldwin counties such that
only the immediate coastal areas are out of the warning. No other
major changes. /29

Previous discussion... /issued 602 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00z issuance...VFR conditions through 20.00z. Winds will be north
to northeast 5 knots or less through 19.15z becoming variable 5
knots or less through 20.00z. 32/ee

Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

Near term /now through Friday/...axis of large dome of cold high
pressure eases eastward over the deep south tonight. As this
occurs, winds become light to calm and along with very low
dewpoints and clear skies, a favorable radiational cooling
component sets up resulting in another very cold night. Overnight
lows look to once again plunge to hard freeze criteria over much
of the area, except for the immediate coastal zones. Thus, hard
freeze warning remains in effect thru late tonight continuing into
mid am Friday. Friday's highs moderate a bit more than today as
the axis of the surface high slips further east. /10

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...high pressure
will gradually shift east through the end of the week as an upper
trough approaches from the west. The shortwave moves across the
area on Saturday, however dry conditions persist due to the lack
of significant moisture return. Temperatures will continue to
rebound through the short term as southerly flow develops. Highs
on Saturday and Sunday will climb into the low to mid 60s. Lows
will trend above normal Saturday and Sunday night. /13

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...a deep upper low and sfc
low pressure will move into the Great Lakes on Monday with a
trailing cold front approaching the area. The cold front will move
across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front,
rain chances will increase late Sunday night and Monday along
with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall amounts
around one-half of an inch should occur, with locally higher
amounts near one inch possible. Patchy to areas of fog should
resume early next week ahead of the cold front. A fast moving
shortwave brings another chance of rain on Wednesday. /13 high pressure builds east over the deep south to
close out the week, winds trend lighter along with seas lowering and
generally ranging from 1 to 2 feet over the next couple days. Next
cold front approaches from the west on Monday bringing an increased
chance of showers and embedded storms across the marine area. Ahead
of the front, a more established onshore wind allows a gradual build
in seas late in the weekend continuing into Monday. Another
potential concern is with warm, moist Gulf air flowing atop cooler
water near the coast, dense fog formation over the nearshore waters
could pose some problems late this weekend. /10


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Friday for alz051>060-261>264.

Florida...hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Friday for flz201-203-205.

MS...hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Friday for msz067-075-076-078-


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