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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
633 am CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...
12z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Northeast winds will generally range between 5-10 knots.
/21

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Previous discussion... /issued 414 am CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

Near term /now through Wednesday night/...a northwest flow pattern
aloft will prevail across our region today and tonight to the east
of an upper level ridge of high pressure that will gradually build
from the western Gulf of Mexico and northward through Louisiana and
Arkansas. Very low precipitable water values between 0.25" and 0.50"
will promote generally clear skies through tonight. A surface ridge
of high pressure will once again extend from the mid-Atlantic region
through the southeastern states today and tonight, promoting a
continued cool and dry northeasterly flow across our region. Highs
today should be similar to yesterday, with readings forecast to
range in the mid to upper 70s over most of our area. Another cool
night is anticipated tonight, with lows looking to mostly range in
the upper 40s to lower 50s over much of the interior, and in the mid
50s to around 60 closer to the coast (except lower to mid 60s along
the beaches). /21

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...upper level ridging
will build over the region as an upper trough develops across the
western states and moves east. This will maintain dry conditions
with temps warming into the low 80s. As the trough moves into the
plains Friday night, winds will become southeasterly. This will
allow deep layer moisture to flow back into the region with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returning, mainly
offshore. /13

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...the upper trough and
associated cold front move eastward through the weekend into early
next week. Significant timing differences continue with the GFS
developing a cutoff upper low across the lower Mississippi River
valley Sunday night into Monday, slowing the passage of the cold
front into early next week. The European model (ecmwf) does not develop the cutoff
low and as a result is much more progressive, moving the system
through Sunday night into early Monday. Due to the large
uncertainties early next week, high rain chances were maintained
Sunday through Monday night, trending down on Tuesday. Adjustments
will have to be made in future forecasts as timing becomes more in
focus. However, both global models do show another shot of cooler
and drier air moving into the area in the wake of the cold front
for the middle part of next week. /13

Marine...a moderate east to northeast flow will continue across the
marine area through Friday as a surface ridge of high pressure
extends from the mid-Atlantic region through the southeastern states.
Wind speeds will range within cautionary levels at times, especially
offshore during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds
transition more southeasterly this weekend as the surface ridge axis
shifts eastward and a cold front moving across the plains states
approaches the Mississippi Valley region. Seas continue to range at
least between 3-5 feet through the weekend. A chance of showers and
storms will return to the marine area this weekend, especially
Sunday and Sunday night. /21

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Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
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