Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS64 KMOB 252318 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
518 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Only
major change expected is a shift in wind direction fro a general
northwesterly at the beginning to a general southeast Sunday, as
surface high pressure passes over, then east of the FA.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Moderate northerly flow in the 
wake of this morning's cold front will relax tonight as high 
pressure builds over the area from the west. With clear skies and a 
much drier airmass over the area, expecting overnight lows tonight 
to dip below seasonal across the area, with low to mid 30's expected 
inland and low to mid 40's along the coast. As the high pressure 
continues to build east into the western Atlantic, surface winds 
shift to easterly and then southeasterly over the local area Sunday. 
As such, clear skies and seasonal highs will continue Sunday 
afternoon, with temps in the mid to upper 60's expected areawide. /49

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Surface high
pressure shifts eastward out into the Western Atlantic Sunday
night. As a result, an east to southeast surface flow becomes 
established creating an uptick in humidity and keeping overnight 
lows warmer. Minimum temperatures near the coast will only fall
into the 50s...while more interior locations will see temperatures
in 40s to low 50s. Daytime highs should climb 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than normal Monday as the onshore flow becomes firmly
established and warm frontal boundary pushes northward over our 
northern MS and AL counties. The probability of rainfall increases
during the day as Precipitable Water (PWAT) climbs to almost 1.5 
inches and shortwave troughs propagating along the southwesterly 
flow aloft will ocnly tap into the underlying instability and 
moisture. The warm and moist weather pattern remains anchored 
over the region through Tuesday night however the warm frontal 
boundary shifts north Monday night and PWATs trend lower. Although
a humid and warm weather pattern remains with us any shower 
activity should remain spotty at best Tuesday through Tuesday 
night.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Deep layer southerly
flow over the area deepens in response to an approaching cold
front extending southwestward from IL through Eastern TX by around
noon Wednesday. ECMWF and GFS seem to be coming into better
agreement on the timing and strength of this system. Current model
trends push the cold front through Wednesday night. A few strong
storms will be possible along the squall and out ahead of it
timing looks to be early evening through overnight hours...also 
cannot rule out the possibility of a severe storm or two but 
current projections show the main dynamics and more favorable 
shear will remain north of our area. Would like to see another 
model run or two to see if consistency is retained and to better 
assess the potential evolution of this low pressure system. 

A cooler and drier airmass then settles over the area in the wake
of the cold front Wednesday night and lasts through Saturday. 
High temperatures should generally climb into the 60s each 
afternoon. With low temperatures bottoming out Thursday night, 
dropping into the mid to upper 30s inland and 40s near the coast. 
Friday night lows will be a bit warmer near 40 to mid 40s inland 
and mid 40s to near 50 along the coast. /08

MARINE...Moderate offshore flow continues through tonight before
shifting to more easterly and then southeasterly Sunday as high 
pressure builds east over the area. Moderate onshore flow then 
persists into the middle part of next week, potentially reaching 
exercise caution levels at times, before another cold front passes
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances for 
showers and thunderstorms increase Monday morning and persist 
until the aforementioned cold front passes through, with moderate 
to strong offshore flow then expected in its wake on Thursday. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations