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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
636 am CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...
12z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
period. Patchy MVFR fog can be expected late tonight. /13

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Previous discussion... /issued 432 am CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

Near term /now through Tuesday night/...a deep layer dry and
subsident airmass will remain in place across our forecast area
today and tonight underneath weak shortwave ridging aloft. A surface
ridge of high pressure centered over the central Gulf of Mexico will
also extend northward over our region. Mostly clear skies/dry
weather and southerly flow can be expected through tonight, along
with warm afternoon temperatures and milder overnight lows. Highs
today are forecast to range from the lower to mid 80s over the
interior, with readings in the mid 70s to around 80 near the
immediate coast and beaches. Lows tonight should range from the mid
50s to around 60 inland to the lower to mid 60s near the
coast/beaches. /21

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...a trough will dig
across the plains and move eastward. This will send a cold front
toward the area Wednesday night. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing along the front by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. This line will move toward the
area and across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Plenty of instability combined with weak shear will favor the
possibility of a few strong to severe storms with straight line
winds the main threat. The main upper dynamics will be pulling
well to the north and this will likely lead to the weakening of
line as it approaches the area. Therefore, the severe risk is only
marginal at this time. This front will stall across northern
potions of the area Thursday afternoon with continued chances of
showers and thunderstorms. The stalled front will move northward
as a warm front Thursday night in advance of a developing system
across the western states. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s
each day with lows in the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s
along the coast. /13

Long term /Friday through Monday/...warm and dry conditions
follow on Friday as a trough digs across the western states. The
trough and associated cold front move east on Saturday with
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Rain chances increase
Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front is expected to move
across the Gulf Coast. This system will also have to monitored for
the potential of severe thudnerstorms and heavy rain.
Temperatures remain above normal levels through the period. /13

Marine...a surface ridge of high pressure will gradually move from
the central Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic Ocean through
Thursday as a cold front approaches the Mississippi Valley and Gulf
Coast region. A light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow
will develop over the marine area today, with southerly flow
gradually increasing late tonight through Thursday. The cold front
will weaken/become diffuse Thursday, so moderate southerly flow will
continue over the marine area through the end of the week into the
weekend. Seas gradually build to 4-6 feet offshore through the end
of the week and into Saturday. Southerly flow becomes strong
Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a more substantial cold front
approaching from the west. This front looks to cross the marine area
Sunday night or early Monday, with stronger offshore flow following
its passage. Seas trend even higher late this weekend in response to
the increasing southerly flow ahead of the approaching front. /21

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Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Florida...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
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