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fxus64 kmob 171122 
afdmob

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
522 am CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...
12z issuance...VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period.
North winds around 15 knots with frequent higher gusts this
morning and afternoon gradually diminish to around 5 to 10 knots
overnight tonight. /49

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 446 am CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

Near term /now through Wednesday night/...current radar trends
(as of 400 am cst) indicate a band of wintry precipitation
extending from roughly Greenville, Alabama to Gulf Shores, Alabama. This
band will continue to push east across the area, exiting our
easternmost counties shortly after 5 am CST. Latest storm reports
indicate a large portion of inland counties have seen up to an
inch of snow accumulation from this event, with local amounts of
up to 2 to 3 inches reported as well. Closer to the coast, a pesky
nose of warm air (at around 5000 feet agl) prevented precipitation
from turning to snow until the very end of the event, with most
instead seeing a mix of freezing rain and sleet. Due to the very
cold temperatures throughout the event, wintry precip has had
little trouble accumulating and many roads have become slick as a
result. Please use extreme caution during the morning commute, and
only drive if absolutely necessary.

With wintry precipitation exiting the area to the east, skies
clear and the weather dries out through the remainder of the near
term. Icy spots will linger on roads (especially bridges and
overpasses) into at least the mid-morning hours, before the sun is
able to improve Road conditions this afternoon. Wind chills remain
in the single digits until late this morning, with a Wind Chill
Advisory in effect for the entire area until 11 am CST. Despite
the returning sunshine, strong cold air advection dominates and
high temperatures only reach the low to mid 30's this afternoon,
with some inland areas possibly remaining below freezing the
entire day. With high temps staying so cold, there could be slick
spots that linger in shady areas throughout the entire day.

If you think the temperatures this morning are bad, you may want
to stop reading here. Lows are expected to be even a few degrees
colder tonight, dipping into the low to mid teens inland and upper
teens to around 20 degrees at area beaches. A hard freeze warning
is once again in effect for the entire area tonight. To make
matters worse, temperatures will be so cold that, despite
weakening winds, wind chills probably dip back into the single
digits. Another Wind Chill Advisory may be required for much of
the area. /49

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...a strong 1035 mb
surface high pressure area across the lower Mississippi River
region will drop further south on Thursday, and then shift east
along the northern Gulf Coast through the remainder of the short
term. A prolonged very cold and dry air mass will persist across
the region through Friday morning. As a result, the hard freeze
warning tonight across all zones tonight extends into Thursday
morning. A Wind Chill Advisory may also be required into Thursday
morning. Low temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning could
potentially fall into upper teens to around 20 degrees across our
interior areas, and a hard freeze watch has been issued for this
time frame. Due to the very cold air mass, there could be slick
spots on roads that linger through Friday morning.

Temperatures on Thursday will reach the mid 40s, falling into the
upper teens to mid 20s overnight. As the surface high pressure
area shifts east of the area, a southerly return flow on the
backside will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 50s on
Friday. /22

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...the surface high pressure
will continue to move east across the western Atlantic over the
weekend, but a trailing surface ridge will remain across the
southeast states and northeast Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low
pressure area will exit the southern rockies on Saturday, and
move east over the central Great Plains on Sunday. An associated
surface low pressure area developing across the western High
Plains late in the week will deepen and lift northeast toward the
Great Lakes through Tuesday morning, while a cold front approaches
the region from the northwest on Monday. These features will
bring widespread rain back to the region late Sunday night through
Monday, along with possible embedded isolated thunderstorms. /22

Marine...strong offshore flow and elevated seas continue today and
tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 am CST
Thursday. Winds and seas then gradually subside throughout the day
Thursday, before light winds shift to more easterly Friday. A light
to moderate onshore flow then develops this weekend, accompanied by
the return of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next
approaching front. Sea fog will be possible as well this weekend
with the return of warm and moist onshore flow over cool near shore
waters. /49

&&

Mob watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Thursday for alz051>060-
261>264.

Hard freeze watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning
for alz051>060-261-262.

Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am CST this morning for alz051>060-
261>266.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST early this morning for
alz058-060.

Hard freeze warning from 11 am this morning to 9 am CST Thursday
for alz265-266.

Florida...hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Thursday for flz201-203.

Hard freeze watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning
for flz201-203-205.

Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am CST this morning for flz201>206.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST early this morning for
flz203>206.

Hard freeze warning from 11 am this morning to 9 am CST Thursday
for flz202-204>206.

MS...hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Thursday for msz067-075-076-
078-079.

Hard freeze watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning
for msz067-075-076-078-079.

Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am CST this morning for msz067-075-
076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Thursday for gmz630>636-650-
655-670-675.

&&

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