Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
847 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
..hazardous marine conditions through late week...
Tonight...rather strong high pressure along the eastern U.S. Coast
will tighten the surface pressure gradient with a 6 mb gradient
indicated from jax to mia late. This will keep breezy onshore winds
over the Atlantic and into the immediate coast. The GFS keeps the
area dry with precipitable water an inch or lower and highest
moisture remaining well to our south. Satellite shows considerable
high clouds associated with upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico
affecting the south half of the peninsula. Lows will be above normal
in the mid 60s inland, but well above normal on the coast, upper 60s
to lower 70s and even some mid 70s immediate space/Treasure Coast.
Have only made minor tweaks to clouds and temps.
mainly VFR. A few stratocumulus ceilings above fl030 could move
ashore and affect mainly coastal terminals overnight and through Thu
morning. Breezy east winds with gusts near 25 knots are possible
along the coast, mainly Thu morning and afternoon.
tonight...won't make any changes to the previous forecast which
shows increasing east flow producing hazardous conditions over most
of the waters. Tightest pressure gradient is over the southern
waters, so won't raise an advisory for coastal Volusia yet.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.