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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
459 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017


Today...high pressure at the sfc and aloft will remain over the
area though the mid level ridge will start to break down so the
atmosphere will not be quite so suppressed. Temps aloft will
cool slightly, +9c at 700 mb and -6c at 500mb which is still
rather warm. The low level ridge axis will remain draped across
central Florida with best moisture convergence across our northern
counties. GFS shows precip water values increasing near 2 inches
north of I 4 corridor. The East Coast sea breeze will spark
isolated showers/storms as it pushes inland from the Treasure
Coast with highest storm coverage expected over the interior late
in the day and early evening. Have drawn 60 pop from Orlando
northward focused on late in the aftn/early evening with lowest
pops along the Treasure Coast at 20 percent. Steering flow
remains weak with deep convection exhibiting slow and erratic
movement so locally heavy rains will occur with amounts of 2-4
inches possible in a few spots assocd with boundary collisions.

The considerable altocu across northern sections early this
morning will limit heating for a few hours this morning. But
temps are quite warm due to the cloud cover so there should not be
a significant hindrance to highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Sea
breeze will hold Max temps to the upper 80s/near 90 along the
immediate coast south of the cape.

Tonight...scattered showers and storms should persist well past
sunset and possibly much of the night across the north. Gradually
taper rain chances down to slight chance along the I 4 corridor
after midnight.

Monday-Tuesday...additional moisture along with cooling
temperatures aloft will combine to bring a higher chance of
showers and storms to the area. With the ridge shifting further
into the Atlantic, expect light southwest steering flow to
develop, allowing the focus for afternoon storms to be over the
central and eastern half of the peninsula. Likely pops (60%+) are
advertised Monday across the I-4 corridor down to Brevard/Osceola
counties where better moisture and lift will occur. Quicker inland
movement of the sea breeze and lower overall moisture will keep
rain chances 20-30% lower along the Treasure Coast. On Tuesday,
scattered to numerous (50-60%) afternoon showers and storms are
advertised areawide. The greatest storm threats will be frequent
lightning, gusty winds, as well as excessive rainfall of 2 to 3
inches in a short period of time. Added cloud cover and
precipitation will help lower temperatures a few degrees relative
to the weekend; highs in the upper 80s (coast) to near 90

Wednesday-Saturday...the surface boundary is expected to wash out
over the area as high pressure builds toward the mid-Atlantic and
into the western Atlantic. Onshore (e/se) flow will commence with
moisture levels remaining high enough to support a scattered
coverage of showers and storms. Though the highest coverage of
afternoon activity will be across inland areas, the elevated
maritime flow should support onshore-moving showers from time to
time. Expect high temperatures to remain near their typical late
June and early July levels (89-91) with above average low
temperatures along the coast due to the warm Atlantic breeze.


VFR cigs across the northern terminals (mco/sfb/dab) early this
morning with -shra near Lee will gradually diminish. Then daytime
heating and sea breeze development should spark isolated showers
15z-18z with highest storm coverage expected again across the
northern terminals focused on 22z-02z. With the next taf package,
plan to add a tempo group for this time period for mco/sfb/Lee.


today...low level ridge axis lies across central Florida and the
adjacent Atlc waters resulting in a light southerly flow around 10
knots. A southeast sea breeze of 10-15 knots will develop near the coast
this afternoon. Seas 2 feet except up to 3 feet offshore. There
will be a chance for storms to approach the Volusia coast late in
the day.

Monday-Tuesday...a weak front approaching the waters will lead to an
increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Surface winds
expected to remain at or below 10 knots outside of thunderstorm
activity, generally out of the south through early Tuesday before
turning to the east/northeast thereafter. Seas generally 2 feet.

Wednesday-Thursday...high pressure building north of Florida will
produce freshening onshore (e/se) flow from mid to late week. Winds
10 to 15 knots will support seas 2-3 feet nearshore and perhaps as
high as 4 feet well offshore.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 91 75 88 74 / 50 50 60 40
mco 93 75 92 74 / 60 50 70 50
mlb 90 76 88 75 / 20 20 60 40
vrb 90 75 88 75 / 20 20 40 30
Lee 93 76 91 74 / 60 50 70 50
sfb 92 75 91 74 / 60 50 70 50
orl 93 76 91 74 / 60 50 70 50
fpr 90 73 89 75 / 20 20 40 30


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...


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