Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 241945
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
245 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018
Currently...enhanced cumulus field is generating few/isolated
showers across the nrn interior with skies mostly sunny behind the
East Coast breeze subsidence from Melbourne to Stuart. Should see a
low shower chance from Lake George to Lake County into this evening
before any remaining showers dissipate a few hours after sunset
across inland areas.
Tonight...low level southeast flow this evening will veer to southerly
overnight at 925 mbs with isolated evening showers across Lake
County diminishing early. Isolated showers may also brush the
Treasure Coast late tonight as some showers round the low level
ridge just offshore. Another night with well above normals temps
expected with lows ranging from near 70 south coastal to the mid 60s
across the interior.
Sunday...the mid level ridge will continue across the srn peninsula
with low level flow veering to southerly. Low level moisture depth
will be similar to Saturday though higher moisture levels will be
near the Treasure Coast and allow for isolated showers mainly across
areas from Brevard and Osceola County south to the Treasure Coast as
East Coast sea breeze develops. Highs will range from 83 to 85
across the coastal counties and 84 to 87 across the interior.
Sun night-Mon night...initially, high pressure over the western Atlc
with associated ridging lies across the central Florida Peninsula. A weak
boundary across the Gulf Coast states makes slow progress southward
into the central Florida Peninsula (potentially) late Mon night. This
east-west boundary will force the high pressure further into the
western Atlc with associated ridge axis forced across the southern
Florida Peninsula. Aloft, mid-level ridging remains rather flat with axis
across the southern Florida Peninsula and extending westward into the the
Gomex. While precipitable water values will be between a modest 1.20-1.40 inches,
any mid/upper level support with the surface boundary remains
severely lacking. Cannot force myself to go higher (just yet) than
20pct during any period of this timeframe. Feel most areas will
either stay dry or just will not see much more than a sprinkle or
brief light shower. Temperatures remain well above climo.
Previous...Tue-Fri...ongoing migration of pattern to zonal aloft with
a weakening surface front moving across central Florida on Tue. Ascd
moisture looks marginal at best to produce no more than isold rain
chc due to lack of forcing mechanism. Temps wl remain at to above
normal to close out the month. Broad ridging is shown trying to re-
establish over the state from mid to late week with continued rather
dry and warm conditions to begin the month of March. A more
pronounced front may make it south into the area around Friday,
bringing cooler conditions for the weekend.
forecasting predominantly VFR conditions across the area today. A few
light showers are possible across the northern terminals through this
evening. Any shower activity will end after sunset. Model guidance is
once again hinting at the possibility of patchy MVFR fog, so have
included tempo groups at kdab and the northern interior terminals.
tonight...se/S winds overnight up to 10-15 knots expected around the
Atlantic ridge with seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore.
Sunday...S winds around 10 knots will become southeast near the coast in
the afternoon. Seas will subside a bit further, around 3 ft
nearshore to 3-4 ft offshore by late afternoon.
Sun night...weak frontal boundary remains quasi-stationary across
the deep south north of the local coastal waters as surface ridging
remains in place (east-west oriented) across the central Florida
Peninsula. Southeasterly winds will veer sswrly north of at least Sebastian
Inlet and S/south-southeast points further southward. Wind speeds at or below 15 kts.
Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore (north of Sebastian
inlet). Shower chances remain isolated.
Previous (modified)...Mon-Thu...weakness created by surface boundary
over north to central Florida will bring lighter winds to the local marine
area early in the week with veering to S to SW component on Monday.
A modest wind shift to north-NE on Tue, should the boundary make it this
far south, will veer direct onshore into midweek. Headlines are not
anticipated at least the first half of the week.
Climate...Melbourne and Vero Beach still have a shot at breaking or
tying their record warm low for today, February 24th. An additional
warm minimum temperature record or two could be possible on Sunday,
February 25th, mainly for coastal sites.
February 24 February 25
Daytona Beach 68-1962 66-1928
Orlando Intl 68-1962 68-1912
Sanford 70-1962 67-2011
Melbourne 72-1979 70-2001
Vero Beach 71-1962 70-2001
ft. Pierce 70-1949 69-2001
Temperatures still forecast to remain well above normal through the
remainder of the month, and a record warm February looks on track
for Orlando, Melbourne, Sanford and Vero Beach, with Daytona Beach
and Fort Pierce likely coming in second warmest.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 66 84 66 83 / 10 10 20 20
mco 66 87 66 85 / 10 10 20 20
mlb 70 83 68 83 / 10 20 20 10
vrb 68 84 67 83 / 20 20 20 20
Lee 66 86 66 84 / 20 10 20 20
sfb 66 86 66 85 / 10 10 20 20
orl 68 87 67 85 / 10 10 20 20
fpr 67 83 67 83 / 20 20 20 20