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FXUS62 KMLB 270145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...Well Above Normal Temperatures Developing into This Weekend...

.UPDATE...The beginnings of a warm and more humid regime are evident 
this evening as the wind flow was turning southerly. This and the 
inland moving sea breeze boundary are elevating dew points, so it 
will be a more mild night.  Latest guidance has lows in the mid 60s 
except for near 70 along the Space/Treasure Coast.

Any lingering stratocumulus should dissipate by midnight and 
subsidence will occur behind weak shortwave trough nudging to our 
east overnight, so expect skies will become mostly clear. Don't see 
any significant fog problems as the ground is just too dry and also 
boundary layer winds will increase to 10-15 knots between surface 
ridge and front moving through the lower Mississippi Valley.

No significant changes to current forecast.


.AVIATION...VFR.  Winds will be southerly Thu but turn southeast 
KTIX to KSUA and should get quite gusty to about 20-23 knots in the 


High pressure ridge setting up from the Gulf of Mexico across 
central Florida and well seaward over the Atlantic will dominate 
through the weekend.  The wind flow will be southeast/south with 
speeds 10-15 knots, but diurnal increases of 15-20 knots will occur 
in the late afternoon/evening through late week.  Seas mainly 3-4 
feet except up to 5 feet at night.

The gradient flow looks southeast over the weekend as the axis of 
the ridge shifts slightly north and speeds will probably be closer 
to 15 knots and occasionally 15-20 knots.  This will generate choppy 
seas and a long fetch will generate a fresh swell, so conditions 
look poor to marginally hazardous for small craft over the weekend.



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