Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
930 am EDT sun Jul 24 2016
today-tonight...the 10z kxmr sounding has come in remarkably drier
with a precipitable water of only 1.16 inches. This in part due to the upper low
moving westward across the south-Central Peninsula this morning.
Water vapor imagery highlights this nicely. 700/500mb temps
respectively at +8.4c/-8.5c. Cape wind profilers showing winds light
and variable through the atmospheric column. Nexrad 88d showing
isolated shower/storm activity encroaching upon the offshore waters
off the Treasure Coast.
Local mesoscale models show an afternoon initiation for convection
mainly west of I-95 and south of Orlando. Again, expect lower than
normal coverage areawide with greatest chances south of Orlando and
over wcfl where deep layer moisture will be highest. Actually the
moisture gradient is quite impressive with nearly 2 inches for pwats
near Lake Okeechobee. Threats continue to be frequent cloud to
ground lightning in a few storms, locally heavy downpours with
possible nuisance flooding of low-lying areas, gusty outflow
winds...especially with the cooler/drier air above the surface, and
perhaps some small hail. Storm motion will continue to be
slow/erratic. Few lingering storms possible into early
evening...mainly Lake County and near the Kissimmee river.
Continued warm with highs in the u80s to near 90 degrees near the
coast and l-m90s into the interior. Overnight lows remain very warm
and generally in the l-m70s areawide. Deep layer moisture will begin
to return areawide later tonight as the upper low continues its
westward track away from the area.
Aviation...continued VFR outside of isolated-widely scattered aftn convection.
Thunderstorms in the vicinity mainly inland from coastal taf sites 17-22z. Much drier air
across the I-4 corridor today. The drier/cooler air aloft may
provide for a few gusty convective cells this afternoon. Current
light and variable winds to become east-southeast or southeast in the afternoon,
then near calm again later this evening/overnight.
Marine...today-tonight...surface ridge axis located across
north-central Florida. Satellite imagery shows upper low moving across
the southern peninsula with much drier air in place. Present l/v
winds will become easterly this afternoon with ecsb development and
push inland. Winds will become light S/southeast this evening and
overnight, perhaps light offshore north of the cape late overnight.
Favorable small craft boating conditions with minimal seas...1-2 ft
near shore and up to 3 ft across offshore waters. Dominant wave
periods around 8-9 seconds. Isolated/widely scattered
showers/storms...mainly south of Sebastian Inlet where deepest