Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 251827
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
..turning hot while remaining generally dry through the weekend...
rest of today/tonight...broad high pressure building in from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain west to southwest flow in
the low-levels, though a developing sea breeze will turn winds
onshore closer to the coast for the remainder of the afternoon.
Dry air aloft, especially above a sharp inversion around 875mb /
4000 feet will erode most of this afternoon's cumulus development
after sunset. With clear skies and light winds, expect temperatures
to cool into the mid/upper 50s most areas, save for more urban
environments and the barrier islands where 60/low 60s are
Wednesday...weak ridging building into the western Atlantic and
ridging across the southern peninsula will veer light surface flow
from the southwest to the southeast during the afternoon.
Available moisture remains much too low for mentionable pops, so
will maintain a dry forecast through the period. Temperatures will
begin their steady climb (that will continue into the weekend),
into the mid 80s across the interior and slightly cooler along the
coast thanks to the developing onshore flow.
Wednesday night-Friday...a generally warm and dry period with
high pressure ridging over the region and limited moisture. Front
approaching from the north weakens with a ridge aloft building in
during the late week. Temperatures will be on a slow warming
trend into late week as this occurs. Gradient will be light enough
for East Coast sea breeze to form each afternoon and hold maxes
near the coast a little lower versus interior. High temps will
climb to the low/mid 90s inland and mid/upper 80s coast by Friday.
Mins also follow suit in the warming from the low/mid 60s Wed
night with many locations remaining in the lower 70s by Friday
Weekend...above normal temperatures will continue over the weekend.
Local area will be in southeast flow around the Atlantic ridge. The
25/00z run of the GFS is again indicating an area of enhanced
moisture moving across the peninsula during Saturday in the
southeasterly flow. Given the moisture increase and temps climbing
into the lower 90s have included a slight chance for late afternoon
showers/storms over the far interior sections. Drier air works back
in for Sunday so kept forecast dry. High temps both days range from
mid 80s immediate coast to lower 90s well inland. Low temps also
above normal in upper 60s/lower 70s.
Early next week...frontal system approaching will increase moisture
and bring at least a low Prospect for showers/storms into the area.
Latest run of GFS is bringing the system into the area daytime
Monday with lingering moisture band across the Central Peninsula on
tues, which is faster and farther south than the European model (ecmwf). For now, am
indicating lower pops than guidance with a slight shower/storm
chance in Mon-Tue time frame. These values can be refined pending
consensus of later model runs.
VFR. Sea breeze along the coast will shift winds onshore at
coastal terminals this afternoon and evening. Diminishing winds
expected after sunset at or below 5 knots becoming southerly early
rest of today/tonight...high pressure building in from the Gulf of
Mexico stretching into the Atlantic will maintain west to
southwest flow tonight at or below 15 knots. Onshore flow over the
nearshore waters as a result of the Atlantic sea breeze will
diminish several hours after sunset this evening, becoming
Wednesday-Sunday...persistent Atlantic ridge axis in the vicinity
of the central Florida Peninsula will keep local waters in
south/southeast flow at or below 15 knots through Friday...then 15
kt offshore on Sat. Atlantic sea breeze circulation forming each
afternoon will provide a little local enhancement near the coast.
Seas mainly 2-3 ft near shore and up to 4 ft offshore through
Fri...building to 3-4 feet near shore waters and up to 5 feet
ambient dry conditions will be aggravated by a bout of low relative humidity as
relative humidity values fall into the m30s for 2 to 3 hours this afternoon.
Overall environmental conditions when considering wind and fuel
moisture do not require issuance of warnings; however, a fire
weather sensitive day is advertised especially for the low relative humidity from
through 6 PM.
Earlier development of onshore flow will likely preclude critical
relative humidity values over coastal counties on wednesday; however, several
hours of mid- 30s rhs are likely across inland areas during the
afternoon. Winds should remain below 15 mph.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 58 82 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
mco 60 86 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
mlb 57 83 65 87 / 0 0 10 0
vrb 56 83 65 88 / 0 0 10 0
Lee 60 86 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
sfb 59 86 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
orl 61 86 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
fpr 56 83 65 88 / 0 0 10 0