Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 261342
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
940 am EDT Fri may 26 2017
Msas analysis shows that the Post-frontal high pressure center has
settled over the peninsula this morning. Skies overhead are clear to
mostly clear with some thin cirrus streaming across the southern
third of the County Warning Area. Morning raobs show extremely dry deep layer air
with unusually low late may pwats of 0.5" to 0.6" over the Central
Full sun/light winds will allow temperatures to recover from this
morning's unusually conformable min temps in the u50s-l60s across
the northern and central County Warning Area. An afternoon sea breeze will cap Max
temps along the immediate coast to the m80s, with u80s elsewhere
over the coastal counties, and around 90f inland. Current forecast
looks fine with only cosmetic tweaks to sky/temperature/wind grids.
Marine...a gentle northwest to north breeze will become onshore (ne
to ene) this afternoon near the coast. Current buoy obs show 7-11kt
winds with seas 2-3ft near shore and 3-3/5ft well offshore, so will
cap offshore seas at around 3ft for this afternoon, as speeds should
drop there a bit.
dss/long term/impact weather...weitlich
Previous discussion... /issued 355 am EDT Fri may 26 2017/
Saturday...dry northwest flow aloft around the mid level ridge across the
wrn Gulf and surface high pressure across the ern Gulf and offshore
Atlc waters will spell a mainly sunny and hot day across the area.
The East Coast sea breeze will develop in the early afternoon along
the East Coast and push slowly inland. High temperatures should
reach the mid 90s across the interior and around 90/lower 90s closer
to the East Coast.
Sun-Mon...the mid level ridge will expand east over the Florida
Peninsula on Sunday and then transition just east of the state by
Monday afternoon. Westerly low level winds are expected each day
with a dry mid level airmass. The East Coast sea breeze will develop
by mid afternoon and push slowly inland. Mostly sunny and hot
weather will continue with highs into the mid 90s for the interior
and lower 90s near the East Coast. Morning lows will generally by in
Tue-Fri...mid level ridge will extend from South Florida northeast into
the Atlc into mid week with light low level winds Tuesday becoming
south to southeast into Wed. GFS indicates enough low level
moistening to continue low rain chances Tue mainly across the
interior in the afternoon with isolated showers and lightning
storms. Late afternoon sea breeze interactions across the interior
will allow for slightly higher afternoon convection chances to 30-40
percent Wed with the lower rain chances along the coast. Highs
should reach the mid 90s again on Tue for the interior and then
lower to mid 90s for Wed inland. GFS has ridge strengthening just
east of the state Thu with somewhat stronger low level southeast flow. This
should keep highest shower/thunderstorm chances across the interior
to 30-40 percent. Longer range models show deeper moisture and
southerly flow for late week which should allow afternoon
shower/thunderstorm chances in the 40-50 percent range.
sfc winds: coastal sites...thru 26/16z west/northwest 4-8kts...btwn 26/16z-
26/19z bcmg east/NE 7-10kts...btwn 27/00z-27/03z bcmg southeast 3-5kts.
Interior sites...thru 26/14z west/northwest 3-6kts...btwn 26/14z-26/17z bcmg
west/SW 6-9kts...btwn 26/21z-26/24z bcmg east/NE 7-10kts...btwn 27/00z-
27/03z bcmg S/southeast 3-5kts.
Vsbys/wx/cigs: VFR all sites.
Today-tonight...favorable boating conds as a weak high pres ridge
builds acrs the Florida Peninsula. Weak sfc/low lvl pgrad will result in
a shifting light to gentle breeze thru daybreak Sat. North/northwest winds will
prevail thru midday. By mid aftn, winds bcmg east/NE nearshore with the
formation of the East Coast sea breeze...N/NE offshore as the center
of the ridge begins to nudge offshore. Winds will continue to veer
as the ridge builds into the west Atlc, bcmg due east by early evng,
S/southeast arnd midnight, then S/SW in the predawn hrs. Seas 2-3ft
nearshore and 3-4ft offshore thru the day, subsiding to at or below 2ft
nearshore and 2-3ft offshore arnd sunset.
Sat...light winds Sat morning will become southeast 10-15 knots near the
coast in the afternoon with the East Coast breeze. Seas mainly
around 2 ft. Sunday...light west winds in the morning will become
onshore around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore to
around 2 ft offshore.
Mon-Tue...west to southwest winds mainly 10 knots or less will
become onshore along the coast each afternoon. Sea conditions will
remain very favorable for boating at 1 to 2 ft early next week.
today-Saturday...despite recent rainfall, erc values remain high
enough to trigger rfw threshold for durational criteria in a few
counties. While sustained sfc/20ft winds will be noticeably lighter
than in recent days as high pressure transits the peninsula, min relative humidity
values blo 35 pct are anticipated along and north of the I-4
corridor for 5-6hrs each aftn.
Seminole/Orange both have erc's high enough to trigger an rfw.
Osceola is borderline and lake is in the ballpark...but their erc's
will only increase thru the upcoming Holiday weekend with zero
Prospect for precip. Will issue an rfw for Seminole/Orange today and
an fww for Seminole/Orange/Osceola/Lake for Saturday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 83 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
mco 90 63 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
mlb 86 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
vrb 86 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
Lee 88 63 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
sfb 89 63 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
orl 90 64 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
fpr 85 67 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...red flag warning today from noon to 8 PM for Orange-Seminole
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon for Lake-Seminole-