Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 171403
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
1002 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
..Flood Watch continues for Volusia and northern Brevard counties...
Surface front making its way slowly into central Florida this morning
with low level winds becoming north-northeast behind the boundary. A broad
trough aloft is progressing eastward toward the ern Gulf of Mexico
with the mid level trough at 500 mbs moving south across al/GA. Some
upper level divergence will occur aloft associated with jet streak
across the southeast Atlantic coast. As the frontal boundary slips
south this afternoon low level NE winds will gradually strengthen
across much of the area into this evening leading to low level
convergence near the East Coast with the highest rain chances
expected across coastal Volusia and nrn Brevard where Atlantic
showers will continue to stream onshore. Short range guidance trends
indicate that strength of onshore flow should continue to favor
coastal areas with highest rain chances into the afternoon. Will
continue high rain chances across nrn coastal areas with locally
heavy rainfall possible with showers moving onshore through the day.
Farther inland and across the far south will decrease pops slightly
to the scattered range in some areas. The approaching mid/upper
level trough will cool temps aloft into the afternoon and with
Morning Sun across the south should see enough instability to
continue low lightning storm chances across the area. Highs will
range from the upper 70s nrn areas to lower to mid 80s srn sections.
morning stratus across nrn areas should lift some through early
afternoon with some MVFR cigs continuing across nrn terminals for
portions of the afternoon hours. Low level north-northeast/NE wind developing
behind the sfc frontal boundary will allow rain showers to move onshore from
kdab-kmlb into the afternoon with some activity developing inland to
nrn interior terminals aft 16z and across srn areas with daytime
heating this afternoon. Low lvl NE flow tonight with cstl
convergence should allow highest coverage of onshore moving from
showers from kdab-kvrb.
frontal boundary slipping south across the east central Florida waters
will allow stronger winds to around 20 knots from the NE for nrn
waters this morning and central waters this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory will go
into effect for srn waters for late evening and overnight. Current
forecast advisory timing is on track with poor to hazardous
conditions for small craft operation this afternoon and tonight.
the middle and upper Saint Johns River basin remains in flood with
only a slight decrease in river levels forecast over the next
several days. Locally heavy rain may occur at times, especially
along the coast. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Volusia and
northern Brevard counties through 4 am Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 79 72 81 72 / 80 70 60 40
mco 80 71 84 71 / 50 40 50 20
mlb 82 74 83 74 / 60 70 60 40
vrb 82 73 84 73 / 60 60 60 40
Lee 80 69 83 69 / 40 30 30 20
sfb 80 70 83 70 / 60 50 50 20
orl 80 70 83 72 / 50 40 50 20
fpr 83 73 84 71 / 50 60 60 40
Florida...Flood Watch through late tonight for coastal Volusia County-
inland Volusia County-northern Brevard County.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
to Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Thursday for Volusia-Brevard
County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 am EDT
Thursday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.