Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
934 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
..wet season dry spell will continue for many locations in east
Today-tonight... morning water vapor imagery shows another swath of
drying aloft spreading in from the east. This subsident air was
occurring in confluent zone between TUTT axis passing into the Gulf
and mid/upper level anticyclone centered to our north.
The Cape Canaveral morning sounding showed precipitable water at
1.94 inches, but southeast/south low level flow will tap drier air
which was evident on Miami and Nassau soundings (~1.67 inches). The
morning soundings also showed 700 mb temps about 1.5c warmer than
These parameters point to convective initiation along the East Coast
sea breeze not being early (again), so there is little relief
indicated for the parched coastal zone. The hrrr model has been
showing little coverage for the coastal counties and the highest
coverage vicinity Lake County where the east/west boundary collision
occurs towards evening.
Don't plan much change to the current forecast which has slight
chance pops at the coast and low end scattered near/west of I-4.
Temps will continue near to slightly above normal, while Max heat
indices slightly over 100 are close to average for this time of the
Climate...all four climate sites are in the top 3 hottest julys on
record at the present time. But, what has made it feel so hot has
been the lack of rain cooling on most days as coverage of
showers/storms has been below normal. This has made it feel hot
longer, well into many of the evenings. The four climate sites
across east central Florida presently are in the top two driest on
Aviation...mostly VFR indicated at the terminals but MVFR-IFR
possible at the interior sites in isolated-scattered
today-tonight...good boating conditions. Bermuda ridge axis between
the I-4 corridor and Lake-Okeechobee was producing light southwest
winds in the north and light southeast winds in the south. The sea
breeze along the Treasure Coast this afternoon will be around 15
knots. Seas 1-2 feet near shore and 2-2.5 feet offshore.
Shower/storm coverage continues low.