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fxus62 kmlb 270826 
afdmlb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
326 am EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Discussion...
today...surface high pressure near the NC coast this morning will
move northeast through the day. Low level winds from the east
early this morning will veer to the southeast into mid morning and
through the afternoon. This will support breezy onshore flow near
the immediate coast and beaches with h9 winds to around 20 knots.
A slug of low level moisture from the Atlc is forecast to move
toward the Treasure Coast early this morning and then northwest across
northern portion of the area into late afternoon. Initial dryness
of the airmass has limited any shower activity thus far across the
Atlc which the short range models had developing by now. The hrrr
and 4km WRF for Storm Prediction Center also indicated limited if any deep convection
across the area a pwats only recover to around 1.3 inches across
nrn sections this afternoon. Will forecast 20 percent shower
chances for much of the area. Highs will reach near 80 to the
lower 80s near the East Coast and 83-84 degrees across the
interior.

Tonight...will forecast some low early evening rain chances across
nrn areas then will see only a slight shower chance mainly along the
Treasure Coast overnight with low level southeast flow. Lighter
southeast flow inland and elevated boundary layer moisture will
support patchy fog across nrn areas and the interior. Lows in the
60s.

Tuesday-Wednesday...surface high pressure pushing off the eastern
Seaboard will leave its axis overtop the Central Peninsula on
Tuesday before getting shunted southward on Wednesday. While this
will generate a steady southeast/south flow, moisture levels
through the period will remain benign (pwats between 1.00"-1.25")
and confined to the lowest levels of the troposphere (850mb and
below). Expect only isolated Atlantic showers on Tuesday, a few of
which will move onshore and produce trace/light rainfall amounts
along the coast, while Wednesday will feature a few pop-up
afternoon showers due to daytime heating. Coverage is expected to
remain at or below 20%.

Thursday...a fairly progressive flow pattern will replace mid-level
ridging over the East Coast with a modestly amplified trough. The
weak southern portion of this trough will cross the state during the
day, allowing a weak/shallow frontal boundary to cross central
Florida Thursday or Thursday night. With the boundary becoming
oriented parallel to the mid/upper level flow, expect it to slow
considerably as it traverses the state. Weak moisture convergence
and isentropic lift along and behind the surface feature will bring
a low chance for showers, and have opted to keep thunder out of the
forecast for this package. Some cooling should reaching northernmost
County Warning Area with Max temps close to 80 (unless frontal timing slows), with
mid 80s central/south.

Friday-Monday...zonal flow redevelops aloft. The surface boundary
will wash out over the southern peninsula as broad high pressure
settles over the Carolina's this weekend. This will bring a period
of moderate/strong onshore flow and cooler/drier wx to east central
Florida. Max temps in the 70s County Warning Area-wide and mins in the 50s
north/interior portion of County Warning Area and low/mid 60s south/coastal areas.

&&

Aviation...
expect some VFR cloudiness in the 030-040 range to move onshore
along the coast from kmlb-ksua early this morning and gradually
transition northwest toward nrn terminals from klee-kdab into mid to late
afternoon. Isold -shra may accompany the cloud band but probs too
low at this time for much of a mention in terminal forecasts.
Some late night fog is expected Mon night across the interior
which will be highlighted in next 12z terminal package.

&&

Marine...
today...southeast winds up to 15-20 knots today will necessitate scec
headlines for all marine zones except the Volusia nearshore waters
where winds will stay around 15 knots. Seas up to 5-6 ft offshore.

Tonight...southeast flow continues to 10-15 knots near shore and
around 15 knots offshore. Seas will remain elevated around 5 ft
offshore.

Tuesday-Wednesday...southeast winds near 15 kt or less, then S at
similar speeds Wednesday. Seas generally 3-5 ft, highest
offshore. Isolated-scattered showers through the period.

Thursday-Friday...a cold front moves south across the waters
Thursday. Prefrontal winds west/SW 5-15 kt shifts to west/northwest with frontal passage
during the afternoon north/central waters and late in the day
South. Strong high pressure building in behind the front will set
the stage for a period of hazardous boating conditions late this
week and into this weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 79 64 82 66 / 20 20 10 10
mco 84 64 85 66 / 20 10 10 10
mlb 82 68 81 67 / 20 10 10 10
vrb 83 67 81 67 / 20 20 20 10
Lee 84 64 85 67 / 30 20 10 10
sfb 83 64 84 66 / 20 10 10 10
orl 83 66 84 67 / 20 10 10 10
fpr 82 67 81 67 / 20 20 20 10

&&

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.

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