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000 
FXUS62 KMLB 240209
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
909 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
A broad cyclonic circulation noted on satellite will continue to 
pull away from the area tonight. Latest water vapor imagery shows
a subsident and very dry air mass moving over the Peninsula, 
though this doesn't tell the whole story as a significant amount 
of moisture continues to reside in the low levels as evident on 
both this evening's XMR sounding and with dewpoints lingering in 
the low to mid 60s as of 9 PM.

While chances for measurable rain have all but ended, lingering 
moisture will allow for a few sprinkles to move onshore the 
Volusia and Northern Brevard County coast through midnight. As 
surface winds decouple from the broader cyclonic flow aloft, 
expect stratus and even some fog to develop overnight. Flow should
remain elevated enough to preclude dense fog from forming;
however, some patches of visibility of less than 1 mile cannot be 
ruled out. 

&&

.AVIATION...
With ample low-level moisture in place, expect stratus to develop
after midnight/05Z, thickening and lowering to MVFR tempo IFR
toward sunrise. Flow looks elevated enough to preclude the
development of widespread fog, however, visibility reductions to
MVFR are anticipated, especially from KMLB south along the
Treasure Coast. 

&&

.MARINE...
Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue overnight, 
especially north of Sebastian Inlet where moderate to fresh 
northeast winds continue to produce elevated seas. This will 
continue into the day on Friday, and an extension of the current 
Small Craft Advisory over the nearshore waters of Brevard/Volusia 
may become necessary. While winds are expected to drop below 
advisory criteria (20 knots) overnight, NE flow around 15 knots 
and a northeast swell will keep combined seas around 7 feet 
offshore through the day on Friday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  78  59  81 /  10   0   0  10 
MCO  63  82  60  83 /  10   0   0  10 
MLB  64  80  61  82 /  10   0   0   0 
VRB  62  79  60  83 /  10  10   0   0 
LEE  62  83  61  80 /  10   0   0  10 
SFB  63  82  60  82 /  10   0   0  10 
ORL  64  82  62  82 /  10   0   0  10 
FPR  61  79  59  82 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County 
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line 
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 AM to 4 PM EST 
     Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 
     nm.

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