Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS62 KMLB 261337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
937 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017


...High Rip Current risk continues along area beaches today...

Today-Tonight...Dampening out shortwave trough will pass across the 
peninsula this afternoon.  This will weaken the ridging aloft but 
12z sounding at Cape Canaveral remained dry with precipitable water 
0.85 inches.  Radar showed that isolated Atlantic showers had mostly 
dissipated.  The HRRR model still generates isolated showers along 
the inland moving sea breeze this afternoon.  Think that the primary 
chance for showers will be over the west side of the peninsula where 
the east/west coast boundaries interact early this evening.  Though 
prospects look small for showers, will not change the low inland 
POP in our forecast.  

The surf zone still looks rather rough due to persistent onshore 
winds and swells that were around 6 feet in the open ocean.  In 
addition to heavy breaking waves, there is a high rip current risk. 
Only swim near a lifeguard.  Those who succumb to the seaward rip 
current pull, do just the opposite.


Primarily VFR.  A small chance for sprinkles or light showers exists 
this morning along the coast.  Moisture trapped below subsidence 
inversion points to some ceilings at or above FL050, mainly south of 
KMLB through early afternoon and at most of the interior terminals 
this afternoon.


Today/Tonight...Weakening high pressure ridge causing diminished 
onshore flow between 10-15 knots; however, a moderate 9-10 period 
swell will maintain 4-5 ft combined seas over the nearshore waters 
and up to 6 feet offshore. This will continue to produce hazardous 
conditions near inlets for small craft during the outgoing tide 
through early-mid afternoon. No change to cautionary statements in 
the current forecast.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations